September 14, 2024
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Early Winter Forecast
It is hard to believe it is mid-September already. I have been busy watching the evolving pattern and keeping up with the Hurricane pattern.
AO Artic Oscillation, NAO North Atlantic Oscillation, IOD Indian Ocean Dipole, MJO Madden Julian Oscillation, PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation, ENSO El Nino Southern Oscillation, ITCZ Intertropical Convergence Zone
LRC and the other Teleconnections The biggest influence we have on weather is the LRC (Lezak’s Recurring Cycle). The next driver of our weather is ENSO or what phase and how strong is the El Nino Southern Oscillation. We are headed towards a likely weak La Nina, or neutral conditions. The most recent year that we had similar conditions was in July, August September (JAS) of 2019–Circled below. It doesn’t mean that we will have the same conditions, as there are many influences on our weather as you can see by the teleconnection diagram above, but it is a large ingredient in our climate mixing bowl.
The LRC sets up in the fall every year and sets the template for storms to follow in the northern hemisphere. Last year that template was set at 45 days, meaning the flow of the jet stream and 500 millibar waves (about halfway up in the atmosphere) followed a similar pattern and repeated every 45 days. That is how we are able to accurately predict when storms will return in the winter based on this flow pattern.
Here is an example of the pattern that recured every 45 days in last year’s pattern. Note how similar the snapshots appear with a ridge centered off the West Coast and a trough centered in the mountain west roughly 45 days apart. This is how the LRC works. A pattern gets established in the fall and repeats, usually within a day or two, every cycle.
I am going to get back to the Early Winter Forecast soon, but below is an example of how using this pattern can produce accurate forecasts beyond 30 days. I appeared on The Flakes Podcast to discuss our long-range forecast with Brian Allegretto, Evan Thayer, and Mike Korotkin, all of OpenSnow. Those of you who have followed our blog may be getting tired of this comparison, but it is proof of the LRC concept that mainstream scientists are yet to fully understand.
In fact, most people don’t understand that 90% accurate long-range forecasts are possible. On the show, I laid out our forecast thru February 29th–59 days out. OpenSnow is a subscription-based site that delivers great content and short-range forecasts for all over the world–there is no site that can compare, so if you live under a rock and haven’t heard of them, check them out for a free 7-day trial at OpenSnow.com.
The Greatest Long-Range Forecast Ever
Every prediction came true. Bryan Allegretto, Mikhal Korotkin, and Evan Thayer would later joke about how FutureSnow nailed prediction after prediction, out to 60 days from the recording.
We got to feature the predictability of the cycling pattern on The Flakes Podcast, January 1st, New Year’s Day. On the show we forecasted multiple events that would transform Lake Tahoe, Utah and Colorado from dismal dry conditions, to very wet.
At the time of the show, Lake Tahoe only had 32 inches and Mammoth had just 28 for the season. On the podcast our segment begins at 10:30 and runs thru 25:43. Over that span, we laid out all of the storms above, including when the dry stretch would be in late January and the first part of February.
We speculated that we would get help from the MJO and predicted a big storm for Tahoe Feb 1, Utah Feb 6-8, Lake Tahoe and Utah again Feb 16.
Lastly, we went even further out, 59 days out to February 29th for a storm predicted for Colorado.
Transcript
This is the transcript from that segment of the podcast, if you did not get a chance to listen. I strongly encourage you to listen to get the vibe from the show, click the link above and listen on Apple, or search it out wherever you get your podcasts.
This is at the tail end of the show after we had already made the above predictions (chart) for January 6-7, 10-11, 14-15, 17-18, 22 and 24th. We talked about a dry stretch that could last 9 – 14 days, but it looked like we would enter phase 7 of the MJO–which happened and opened the storm door for late January and our predicted events in February.
Now we pick up the conversation as Evan Thayer from OpenSnow asks us to lay it on the line.
Evan Thayer: This is the chance to shine. We’re giving you a fair and open chance, so give us the dates…..
Mike Holm: ok so you want a big storm, Lake Tahoe February 1st…for Lake Tahoe is a special case, because these storms are crazy…there usually cutoff storms. There’s going to be a storm February 1st (after an 8 Day dry period that we predicted above, February 1 kicked off eight straight days. 59 inches at Kirkwood).
Mike Holm continues: February 6 and 7th, Utah (storm hit on time, 33 inches at Utah February 6-8), uh let’s see, February 16, Utah again (storm actually hit the 16th and 17th, 30 inches at Brighton), Lake Tahoe February 16. That should be a decent storm, now again Lake Tahoe—3-day tolerance so, it could be on the 12th, but you know when you only have three good storms for the Sierra, you know a 50+ day cycle it’s pretty easy to narrow into a week, so you’ll give me a week right? (storm actually hit February 15th, 12 inches at Sierra at Tahoe)
Brian Allegretto: Yeah
Mike Holm: …then moving on if you want the longest storm (furthest out prediction) Colorado Rockies February 29th (storm actually hit the 27th to 28th— 16 inches at Telluride).
So, is anybody writing these down?
Brian Allegretto: (laughing) Aah….there recorded! (all burst out laughing)
Thoughts on Winter
There are hints with the way the storms are moving that gives us incite on where the snow will hit this winter season. Every year in July, the earliest hints of the new pattern begin to show up and gradually morph into the new pattern. Once we get into October, just a few weeks away, the new pattern is dominant with some of the previous pattern’s storms still holding on. By December, it is 100% new pattern.
I have made some videos to help explain what I expect to happen based on current storm tracks and the last time we had a similar set up. They are Zonal Flow, Lake Tahoe Flow, West Coast Ridge, and Northern Track.
All of these tracks have been showing up in the storms since July, albeit in a more northern location due to the strength of the jet stream this time of year. We are simply projecting where these storms will track once we get into December.
Based on these tracks and the likelihood of a longer pattern length, 50 and above, we can project that this is a good setup for the Pacific Northwest. We mentioned the PNW in a post last week. The storm track favors the Pacific Northwest due to a weak La Nina or neutral conditions. It also is likely with this type of pattern that southern resorts in California, Utah and Colorado will likely be dryer than average.
Along with the PNW, I expect Canadian resorts to be above average this year, especially Whistler Blackcomb. As of now, I would place Whistler as a likely heavy snowfall location. Revelstoke, the Powder Highway resorts, and Banff/Lake Louise should all be above average.
Montana, Idaho and Wyoming Above Average.
Utah and Colorado look to be Average to below.
California Below average.
This is obviously not set in stone, as it is very early in the transition. We could have a long cycle length, like we had back in the 21-22 pattern, 64 days, longer cycles tend to have more blocking. We haven’t seen much blocking over the last two patterns. Blocking is when a ridge of high pressure is in place for an extended period of time. The high-pressure ridge prevents storms from moving through the area, and instead, have to move around it either above or below.
There has been little blocking the last two patterns. In fact, the record snowfall year for Alta of 22-23 had virtually no blocking at all, with strong help from teleconnections, such as the Madden Julian Oscillation, or MJO, in our earlier discussion.
Madden Julian Oscillation MJO
The Madden Julian Oscillation is another part of the atmospheric puzzle that determines the intensity, or amplitude of storms. The MJO is an eastward moving area of enhanced cloud and precipitation that can open the storm door to California. It can also charge the atmosphere so that additional storms can be added to the mix. There are signs that the MJO could be a strong player this upcoming pattern.
Indian Ocean Dipole
The MJO’s strength is tied to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). A positive IOD suppresses the MJO while a negative IOD enhances the MJO. We are moving into a negative phase of the IOD. This phase favors a stronger MJO. A stronger MJO in phases 1,2, 6, 7 and 8 enhance precipitation. The southern track for storms to hit California is opened during phases 6,7 and 8. Phases 3 and 4 suppress precipitation for the west while phases 1 and 2 don’t affect the northern track.
Summary
We won’t know what type of winter we will have until we get into early December. The above thoughts on where the snow will fly and areas that will be abnormally dry are just projections based on what has happened in the past and how the current setup is showing. I have seen dry Septembers and Octobers, and it suddenly changes to wet. The hand that mother nature is holding will be laid out over the next 8 to 10 weeks.
When you think of the 19-20 season the first thing that comes to my mind is the Covid shut down. I remember how dry it was for California and right when the shutdown occurred, it became suddenly wet dumping feet of snow, but the resorts were closed.
I remember similar conditions in Colorado until early February when the storm door was open. This storm was based on the October 10th storm (above chart) and was a major storm that cycled back through in early February dumping 60 inches over 3 days.
Will this season be similar to that one, or will the enhanced MJO from a negative IOD change the trajectory of the current conditions? We will know by early December for sure. One thing is certain though, based on the cycling pattern we will know when and where storms track. The intensity of these storms is presently weak, but that is normal this time of year. They will grow in late October.
We will have a follow up on this forecast December 1st but will offer incite over the upcoming weeks as to changes in the teleconnections mix. Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co. We have received many great questions, and it is a pleasure to answer them, so don’t hesitate to ask.
