Where do you want to be for Thanksgiving, the Pacific Northwest. Future Snow doesn’t speak much about current storms unless something is different, such as the Tuesday storm for Colorado. Joel Gratz at OpenSnow.com is an excellent source if you want the forecasts for the next 10 days. At FutureSnow, our job is to give you the long range.
In the previous cycle the storm came through it’s stayed north of Colorado. There was low pressure off to the SW just like the upcoming system but there was no moisture to tap into. We will keep an eye on it in upcoming cycles.
The cycling pattern has many different influences, such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific North American pattern (PNA), El Niño La Niña, and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)to name quite a few. All of these influences play a role in the steering of the overall Pattern.
So during last cycle, the storm that’s coming Tuesday, the AO and the NAO we’re split, MJO was an influence as well. This time around the MJO is not an influence—the AO, and the NAO are both positive. So we will bookmark that information for upcoming cycles.
December 4th System
Our prediction of the December 4th storm is on track for Colorado and appears to be a day late. Just a couple of days ago it seemed to be a half a day early. This is typical because the models don’t understand the pattern perfectly— I don’t have a complete grasp of the pattern either. Each day I get a little closer. What do those other influencers have on the size of the storm? Let’s take last year‘s signature storm for example. The first time it came through was early October giving Vail 10 inches and rain. Next cycle Vail received 7 inches. Third time was the charm, I-70 closed Vail had over 3 feet. As we get into the second and third cycle will be able to tell which storm is the signature storm for this season. It could be the Dec 17th Storm. Stay tuned.