Special Report

Steamboat, Vail/Beaver Creek, Wolf Creek and Winter Park

Forecast from March 15th thru May 10th

Ok Seth here we go.  I picked March 15th because it is beyond model range, with the exception of the weeklies which I never look at anyway.  The forecast you are about to receive is from using the LRC and the LRC Model (patent-pending). 

The LRC model uses model data from the ERA5 combined with cycle data from the previous 4 cycles (38-42 days centered on a 40-day cycle) that is projected forward using seasonal temperature averages.  Basically, it records what happens and predicts using an algorithm that blends the previous cycles with current data.

Let’s start with the model first.

Steamboat is projected to have 131-133 inches the rest of the season, Vail 148-152, Wolf Creek 64-67, Winter Park 156-159. 

Looking at the bar chart, upper left corner, those are the projected storm dates.  Note, the actual storms are above the 100% line.  So, Vail, for instance, would have storms on March 8, 9, 10 then a strong storm on March 20-22, another strong storm Mar 28-30. 

April starts out dry, with a small wave around the 10th, then a good storm around April 18-21 followed by a weak storm to close out the month.  In May, a storm around the beginning of the month 1-3rd, then a strong storm around May 8-10th.   Will those storms in May be cold enough?

Thats the Model, now the other way is more traditional spread sheet data, more reliable to, for now.

This is a Birdseye view of the pattern through 4 cycles, not including pre-cycles that begin as early as July.  It’s really simple, once you have the correct cycle length, the data you record aligns over time.  That is what is shown here.  The grey shaded areas are the repeating storms.  The light blue boxes represent 10+ inches of snowfall on any given day. 

The second shaded area from the left is the Trifecta and has produced double digit totals in cycles 2, 3 and 4.  Using the model data and the previous two cycles, I was able to predict a major storm on January 20th, right on your blog, and mine and about 6 others with the total Facebook audience of around 150,000.  It would have had another 65000 had you allowed the post.

I’m not going to fault you for who you allow to post.  I have found so many groups that welcome what we are doing, and, I have discovered a back-door way to tap into your audience and others by working with META directly.  I am a strong advertiser now and they are rolling out the red carpet.  We are still adding subscriptions daily–which is crazy because usually it is dead around now.  I have noticed a dramatic drop in comments and engagement on other pages lately, which is usual for this time of year.  

Model + Analog Method

Ok, so how do the pattern storms from the spreadsheet align with the model?  Pretty damn close, as it should be as it is based on similar data, but it is the projected strength of the storms that is helpful with the combination.  

Storms

Global Predictor

We have a weather app for Android and Apple that is called the Global Predictor.  With the app you can access LRC data, on a simplified basis, to get a 6-month forecast.  This is a work in progress, but here are the monthly forecasts for the 4 resorts.