Pretty hazy in Colorado the past couple of weeks but there have been some spectacular sunsets. I will post a La Nina update on FutureSnow.CO soon. Will there be good snow for CO next season? Stay tuned!
Smoke
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Eldora is the Winner
Impressive numbers for a May storm. Eldora had over a foot, Vail 10, Winter Park 7, Breck 6, Copper and Snowmass 5, Arapahoe Basin a thick 4. Disappointing numbers at ABay, I thought they would at least get 8. I will investigate and see how well it skis today. Tons of terrain open and I’m thinking the Cornice and Beavers should be fantastic.
This puts a wrap on the predictions chart. This storm was a great punctuation mark for showcasing the Pattern.
Todays the Day
Winter storm warning issued today until 3pm–that will be extended. Paltry totals for most mountains yesterday, but that will change today with 4-8″ at Breck and ABasin. Eldora was the winner yesterday with 4 or 5″(cam est) Eldora should do really well today, as well, but the bullseye of this storm is the RMNP area and Winter Park.
Expect snow showers today with heavy snow at times. Temps will be in the mid 20s with highs near 30 today. Tonight much colder air will move in with temps in the teens. RMNP and Winter Park area will have winds in the 5-10 range with gusts of 15 mph. ABasin and Breck areas will have stronger winds of 10-15 with 30-35 mph gusts. 3-5″ today with 4-8″ after the lifts close. The movement of this storm has slowed a little so expect snow showers to continue through the night and tomorrow morning. Below is the GFS projected totals.
Snow Tonight and Monday
We are wrapping our inaugural season of FutureSnow with a great storm that was predicted way back on February 21st. We predicted 10 storms on that day and had just 1 bust. 90% for the last 10 storms and 87% for the season (43/49 87.7%). Here is the link for our complete scorecard:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/tctp2yildavcavz/FS%20Predictions%20.xlsx?dl=0
This ability to be able to predict storms months in advance allows you to ask off from work, or be able to book trips for the cheapest possible prices and not be let down by bad snow conditions. Busts still happen but with a record approaching 90% the odds are ever in your favor–much more than just throwing a dart. Also, there are better years than this La Nina season. El Nino years produce much larger snowfall totals with the same ability to predict “Pattern” systems.
Do you know that this year the same number of snowfall days occurred in Colorado than last year, but with 30% less snow? Its true, 58 snowfall days this year vs 58 snowfall days last year–example from Beaver Creek if it had the same season length due to last years shortened COVID season.
Forecast for Sunday 1-2″
Today expect scattered snow with an inch or two at ABasin, and Breck. The main energy will start after the lifts stop spinning Sunday night.
Monday 2-4″ Daytime and 4-8″ Overnight
Snow throughout the day Monday. Larger totals will be in the RCMP area so a good place to make powder turns at the old Hidden Valley Resort. They took the lifts out in the early 90’s but the runs are still there and not overgrown. You can skin up or carpool to the top (if the road is open).
Tuesday 2-4″
Powder day. The bulk of the snowfall will occur before the lifts start spinning on Tuesday. However, there will be scattered snow throughout the day with a couple more inches possible.
CoSig 2, Powder Alert
We are tracking a large spring storm that will begin in Colorado’s southern mountains late Sunday night. As of now, expect snow, off and on, throughout the day Monday and then scattered snow showers on Tuesday. This is a cold storm, especially for this time of year, It has produced in every cycle and is part 2 of this years Co-Signature (CoSig) storms. Below is the results of this impressive repeating system. When we get a little closer I will dial in the amounts, but it looks like solid double digits as of now. This storm’s history tells us that the GFS can be trusted. Below are the results throughout cycles 1-4.
Last Cycle (4)
Wolf 14″, Telluride 14″ Vail 9″
Cycle 3 Storm a day early)
Vail 29″, Breckenridge 23″, Crested Butte 14″
Cycle 2 (Tracked more favorably for Utah)
Breckenridge 6″, Alta 20″
Cycle 1
Wolf 25″, Vail 15″, Crested Butte 16″
Here is a look at the signature troughs that occur with this system. Notice the similarities with the position of the ridge and the shape of the trough. Remember, the teleconnections drive the shape and strength of the storm with ENSO (LaNina) being the biggest influence.
And Then There Was 1
We have one last prediction, May 9th, that was predicted way back on February 21st. Presently it is looking like a good storm and we will go out with a bang–with some double digits!
We will keep an eye on this storm and I’ll update you in a few days. If it holds together I’ll head out to Arapahoe Basin one last time–or maybe not the last–we will see. The snowpack will definitely not make it to July and probably not even June either.
If all holds together we will finish the year with an average accuracy of 87%. In this La Nina year we got it mostly right. In fact, this year is similar to last year if you look at the number of days it snowed. It snowed at Beaver Creek 58 days this year compared to 58 days last year. I had to shorten this season to match the same length last season because of the shutdown. So it snowed a very similar amount of days but the snow was about 30% less.
Below is the updated chart or you can access the spreadsheet here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/9qkwjg6yxrrb3a1/Snow%20totals%202021revised.xlsx?dl=0
There is 1 more prediction that I made just for fun–the hurricane prediction. June 3rd, July 20th, or Sept 4th +/- 5 days. You can read that blog here: Upcoming Pattern Storm for Colorado – FutureSnow
There are other ways you can use your knowledge of the pattern. It is useful for predicting severe weather outbreaks. Look for May 18-20th for this possible strong setup for tornados. Thanks for spending a few moments reading the blog. Mike
Last 4 Predictions
There are 4 predictions remaining for the first season of FutureSnow and all of the predicted storms are showing up on the GFS. This has been a fun year and it has been my pleasure to bring you this technology. Jerome Namias, in 1949, wrote that upper-level winds had asymmetric variations that repeated regularly. He used this knowledge to make 5-day, and later 30-day forecasts based on his “Index Cycle”. He was simply brilliant and wrote over 200 papers and received multiple awards, including the highest award from the American Meteorological Society. We are using his theory today, with modern technology, to give you forecasts over a month in advance so that YOU can have fresh snow when you go!
Below is the updated predictions chart currently 87% accurate. There were 45 predicted storms with 6 busts (note March 15-19 was counted as 1 storm). Here is the link to enlarge: https://www.dropbox.com/s/4duvr7aksnc72t9/IMG_3264.jpg?dl=0
CoSig April 27th
I got a chance to recharge the batteries this weekend at the Lake of the Ozarks. If you don’t know, the lake is huge spanning over 80 miles of winding turns and is featured in the Netflix show Ozark. If you have watched the series there are a lot of similarities—I’m just going to leave it there. This picture is from the cove next to Big Dicks Halfway Inn, which is about the middle of the lake at mile 47. Big Dicks is a popular restaurant and bar where you earn your stripes shooting a shot of liquor with a live minnow swimming in it. Ok so on to the next storm.
The storm that I coined CoSig back in cycle 2 (there are 2 main storms this year), is showing up on the models and is on time. Below is each 500 mb chart with vorticity of each cycle. Notice the similarities.
Do you notice how the projected Cycle five chart looks similar to cycle 1? It is because it is similar to the conditions and time of year. Cycle 1 was in the fall, cycle 5, present cycle is in the spring, with similar teleconnection patterns. I will be monitoring this storm and update you in a couple of days. Thanks for taking time to read the blog. Mike
Upcoming Pattern Storm for Colorado
FutureHurricanes?
Back on February 21st, the storm that is approaching Colorado for this coming Monday, was predicted by FutureSnow. It is part of the 46.5 day cycle length of this years repeating pattern. Monday’s storm has hit, on time, in every cycle with cycle 2 being the precipitation winner to date with 10” each at Vail and Keystone.
The 5th cycle began on April 8th. Below is the GFS snapshot of the 500 hPa charts for each cycle. You can see plenty of similarities and differences due to the different teleconnections. There are several things to compare and contrast but I’ll mention a couple. First the remnants of hurricane Delta are in cycle 1–the red dot near Washington DC. I mention this because one aspect of the repeating pattern is useful in predicting future hurricanes. You won’t know in which cycle they will come, but whatever hurricanes that occur during the new cycling pattern, their path will reoccur in the same date of the cycle, with similar locations the following hurricane season. So in this instance, hurricane Delta hit the Gulf of Mexico around Texas and Louisiana—so it will hit that same region this hurricane season during the same day of the cycle (day 4 cycle 1), so look for a possible hurricane hitting the Gulf June 3rd, July 20th, or Sept 4t: probability 75% +/- 5 days. Second, you can also see how the polar vortex, in cycle 4, effected the pattern. Look at the location of the polar vortex and how that changed the look of the chart. The PV is an teleconnection so this is a clear example of how just one connection can change the outcome.
The next pattern storms will arrive towards the end of April. I will give you an update when we get a little closer. Thanks for spending time reading the FutureSnow/FutureHurricane blog, as always if you have any questions please ask in the comments section or send an email to Mike@FutureSnow.co.
Late Season Trips
Focus Mt.Hood Washington
Spring has come to most ski resorts but there are still many places to ski. There have been some surprise closings with COVID-19. Canada has shuttered a lot of resorts because of variant outbreaks, mainly the P1 variant. Vancouver’s Provincial health minister Dr. Bonnie Henry said that it was likely spread from visitors from eastern provinces. Whistler Blackcomb, Banff Sunshine Village, and Revelstoke to name a few of the resorts closed. No loss for Americans as the border is still closed to visit Canada.
Besides Alaska, Washington state is the best area to ski, followed by Oregon. In Washington, Mount Baker, Crystal Mountain will remain open until the first week of May. Mount Hood Oregon Resorts, Mount Hood Meadows, and timberline will be open through May. Timberline remains open in the summer with glacier skiing. Last year they were one of the first resorts to open back up. If you’ve never skied Mount Hood, Timberline is a bucket list hotel to stay at. The outside shots of the movie the Shining, was filmed on the dormant volcano. When you enter the lodge you are greeted by a friendly St. Bernard and amazing 4 sided, multilevel fireplace. The lodge cable network has a dedicated channel to the Shining, as well an wonderful documentary of how the hotel was built during the depression. I like to stay at Timberline and ski Meadows. Timberline ski resort is pretty small and not very challenging but at least worth a day—Meadows is excellent and can accommodate the beginner to expert.
