In the 1940s, Jerome Namais, a meteorological researcher, discovered what he called the “Index Cycle” and found that it is possible to make long-range predictions for winter based on what occurs in fall. Namais laid the groundwork that would become the CPH (Cycling Pattern Hypothesis) written by Meteorologist Gary Lezak. Lezak discovered the LRC (Lezak’s Recurring Cycle) independently and learned of Namais’ work later. The Heady Pattern was discovered by meteorologist Doug Heady, independently and is essentially the same as the LRC with a few differences.
Paraphrasing the theories “a unique weather pattern sets up in the fall and semi-permanent anchor troughs and ridges are established. A cycle Length evolves and repeats until the jet stream reaches its weakest position in the summer”.
Ok so what does this mean?
The weather repeats. Not exactly the same every cycle, but weather that occurs on a specific date will return with similar result the next cycle. Once you learn the cycle length and the path of the storms, you can make a prediction for future weather. Here are a few examples from last year.
Breckenridge Recurring Storm #5
Cycle 1 November 26/27 7″
Cycle 2 January 23-24 16″
Cycle 3 March 23-24 12″
Vail Recurring Storm #2
Cycle 1 October 10-13 10″
Cycle 2 December 8-11 9″
Cycle 3 February 4-7 27″
Big Sky Storm # 4
November 13-14 9″
January 10-11 17″
March 9-10 14″
By watching storms that occur in September, October and November we can accurately predict the rest of the ski season. So you know when to have planned time off from work and reserve your dates with your resort.
Beat the rush for reservations!