These two animations below (click to start) are of the upcoming Tahoe storm and the same system during Cycle 1. You can tell, back in November, the storms position of the low pressure is farther north, but it takes the same path as the projected storm for Monday. There are subtle differences between these two versions of the cycling pattern, such as the positioning of the high, but they are essentially the same.
We are back to the Northern Pattern for the next four weeks and return to the Active West pattern on April 14th. As you have probably heard, Vail resorts has lengthened their season to May 1st. Normally they pack in by mid-April and only stay open during good snow years, this is not a good snow year, so it is clearly Covid related (in my opinion). The later date will help, because I expect mid-April to be Epic!
In this part of the pattern, the storms track across Canada and across the upper west mountains. During this phase, there are a couple of storms that mimic the Active West Pattern. One of the storms is coming up next week, beginning Sunday night. That will be our next chance for snow.
Welcome to Future Snow (if you’re new)
If you are new to our site, you are in for a surprise. The weather repeats. Stay with me…..for the last 20 years, Gary Lezak, a meteorologist in my hometown of Kansas City, has been working on understanding how this all works and has authored a peer reviewed study called “Cycling Weather Patterns in the Northern Hemisphere“. Below is a video with two cycles synced up so you can see the pattern clearly.
That is a little background on what we call the Pattern. Once you understand it, you can predict weather months in advance–that is what we do here. Presently, we are about 87 percent accurate predicting storms over 30 days out. We have an official prediction chart posted with all of this years predicted storms and results.
All Pattern Storms thru Mid-April
Place, Date of Prediction, Mountains, Lead Time, Date Predicted, Cycle day
|Colorado||1-March||Northern Mountains||18||Mar 19-20||42-43||1|
|Revelstoke, Banff||1-March||Selkirk, Alberta Range||21||Mar 22-23||45-46||1|
|Jay Peak||1-March||Vermont||23||Mar 24-25||47-48||1|