Skip to main content
Forecast Blog

On to Utah and Colorado (updated)

By April 22, 2022April 23rd, 2022One Comment

 

Storm Summary

The Trifecta storm is cycling through Utah and Colorado this morning, but not after 40+ over the last 3 days (@8000ft) at Palisades.  Kirkwood is up to 34, with the help of 24 yesterday.

Update

Palisades received 28″ in 24 hours at 8000 ft, 23″ at 6835 ft, and 15″ at 6200ft–Nice!  That puts them at 394″ for the year up top.  Just about half of that amount at 6200, 193″, snow levels are a huge factor in totals.

Since the new cycle began on April 11, Palisades has received around 86 inches.  That is a little more than they had back in the incredibly active cycle 2, at this point. 

The difference between cycle 2 and this cycle (4), is the trail storm, that is hitting Canada now, was caught up in the flow and dropped down to the Tahoe basin and added another 26″ at Palisades and a whopping 36″ at Kirkwood.  That did not happen in cycle 3 and now.

Admittingly, I was caught up into believing that that energy would return in cycle 3.  That, along with some calculation errors, cause our calendars to be way too optimistic and off on timing.  We will learn from that experience.

Snow continues this morning at Alta, Brighton, and Snowbird.  We received 15 at Alta and Snowbird yesterday and 8 at Brighton.  Brighton is close to my heart because I learned to snowboard there back in 96′.  I learned to ski at Keystone in 82′, on a 7th grade ski trip, which makes me seem old!

 

Moderate winds today between 15-20 mph with temperatures around 25.  Expect another 1-3 before the storm exits this afternoon.  

Colorado

Moderate winds today between 15-20 with 30 mph gusts.  Expect another 3-5 for most northern and central mountains.  There is a little clipper-like wave that will be coming down tomorrow night.  That could give us a good refresh.  It is the last remnants of the Trifecta, an outer band of the comma head.  Maybe 2-4, if we’re lucky.

Below are the upcoming storms for the rest of the season.  The next storm, listed below for April 28-29, is on the GFS for Friday.  The May 5th storm is not showing up on the models–yet.  It should begin to show up in the next couple of days.

Thank You!

The season is winding down and I want to thank all of you who have been following along since this year and last.  This is a fun job bringing you this new technology.  I have received so many comments and emails throughout the year from other passionate people that love the sport.  So, I say thank you!  

If you are new to the blog thanks for reading and if you have any questions please feel free to send me an email to Mike@FutureSnow.CO

 

Below are the upcoming storms using the cycling pattern, with a brief history from previous cycles, followed by our official predictions chart.  We are around 90% accurate over 30 days out, on average.  

Upcoming Pattern Storms through June 

Below are storms in the pattern that are significant and have repeated at least twice.  We have a long cycle length of 64 days, that is the second longest length in the last 20 years.  The average cycle length, over the last 20 years is 53 days.  The shortest was 38 days and the longest was 75. The long cycle length has a possible connection to the following years El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).  Sixty four percent of the time, after a significant jump in cycle length, the following year was an El Nino year.

April 21-24 Trifecta 2 waves: Rain cycle 1 for PNW, between 10-18″ for Colorado resorts, over 2 feet for Utah’s Cottonwoods.  Cycle 2:  Crystal 30, Snowbird 32, and Crested Butte 31.  Cycle 3 Mt Hood (Timberline) Alta 7, Vail 7

April 28-29 This storm hit in Cycles 1 and 2 and was 2 days late in Cycle 3.  Cycle 2 had rain for the PNW

May 5 (Tahoe AR Oct 25) Epic 100″ week in Cycle 2 with 39″ 1-day total in Cycle 1.However, in Cycle 3 the storm was caught up in the double-barrel high and that pushed the storm up in Canada.

May 7-8 Good storm all three cycles for Colorado and Utah with double-digit totals for all 3 Cycles with Cycle 2 the winner.  If you are looking for a powder day in May, this is the one to watch.  Arapahoe Basin time?

May 13-14 Storm hit Colorado all 3 cycles and missed to the north of Utah, in Cycle 1

May 17 Missed Utah and Colorado to the north in Cycle 1, but hit in both Cycle 2-3

May 20-21 Last storm of Active West Small system due to the weakening Active West pattern and transition to the Northern Pattern.  Hit in all 3 cycles for Utah and Colorado

June 5-6 AR 4th Straight for Seattle?

Updated Prediction Chart

One Comment

  • Kermit Lohry says:

    nice forecast. We got 10″ on the winter park snow stake so far… thanks for all your hard work this season.

Leave a Reply