Ok so let’s turn our attention to storm 2. This will begin off the coast of British Columbia and impact the coastline December 15th. The last time it came through it dove south down the coastline hitting the Cascades, Tahoe region, then Utah and Colorado along the way. For my friends in the Tahoe region the last time trough produced a foot on the north side of the lake. Sierra was the winner with 20+. This storm should describe the path of this years repeating pattern. Which areas it hits this time through and more importantly which areas it does not hit describe the path. The timing of the storm itself will verify my grasp of this years pattern. The first prediction of December 4th appears to be 2 days early. IF this storm is 2 days early, than it’s easy, the cycle length is 2 days shorter and we just move everything up next cycle. If the storm doesn’t show up then I have a lot of work to do.
The roller coaster ride of the December 4 storm which was on, then early, then late, then over, may not be over after all. That is the trouble with models. I’m not ready to give up on the storm just yet. Now the storm is showing back up again about the time it was supposed to. So we will keep an eye on it. The models were showing a ridge building up in the west which was going to zap a lot of energy from the storm, or I could simply be wrong on the length of the cycle. I have poured over everything again and I still keep coming up with the same number. But, there is another possibility, in terms of cycle length that could fit. When it comes to the pattern, it CAN have a ridge in one cycle and not another. The storms are still on time but are affected by the present conditions. Remember I mentioned the teleconnections in each cycle effects the outcome from cycle to cycle, such as AO, MJO, etc. I this is a current snapshot of what the storm will look like. It develops the same as it did the last time it came through, but it has to go over the ridge and down to Colorado.
We’re getting a lot closer, so we will now soon. Stay tuned.
Where do you want to be for Thanksgiving, the Pacific Northwest. Future Snow doesn’t speak much about current storms unless something is different, such as the Tuesday storm for Colorado. Joel Gratz at OpenSnow.com is an excellent source if you want the forecasts for the next 10 days. At FutureSnow, our job is to give you the long range.
Tuesday Storm In the previous cycle the storm came through it’s stayed north of Colorado. There was low pressure off to the SW just like the upcoming system but there was no moisture to tap into. We will keep an eye on it in upcoming cycles. The cycling pattern has many different influences, such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific North American pattern (PNA), El Niño La Niña, and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)to name quite a few. All of these influences play a role in the steering of the overall Pattern.
Other Influences So during last cycle, the storm that’s coming Tuesday, the AO and the NAO we’re split, MJO was an influence as well. This time around the MJO is not an influence—the AO, and the NAO are both positive. So we will bookmark that information for upcoming cycles.
December 4th System
Our prediction of the December 4th storm is on track for Colorado and appears to be a day late. Just a couple of days ago it seemed to be a half a day early. This is typical because the models don’t understand the pattern perfectly— I don’t have a complete grasp of the pattern either. Each day I get a little closer. What do those other influencers have on the size of the storm? Let’s take last year‘s signature storm for example. The first time it came through was early October giving Vail 10 inches and rain. Next cycle Vail received 7 inches. Third time was the charm, I-70 closed Vail had over 3 feet. As we get into the second and third cycle will be able to tell which storm is the signature storm for this season. It could be the Dec 17th Storm. Stay tuned.
For a few days now the models have been picking up on the December 4th storm. It looks to be running a half-day early, as it stands now. OK so let’s look ahead to the next storm for December 17th. If the December 4th storm is early that could move up the second storm a half-day as well, meaning the cycle length could be a half-day shorter. Like I mentioned in a previous post, this is the earliest I have found the new pattern so bare with me and I’ll lock in the length. The December 17 storm will begin on the 15th just off the coast of Vancouver. This is part of a larger system the will be nailing Whistler a couple of days earlier and kick out to the SSE. Crystal, Steven’s, Mt Hood prepare for powder. Lake Tahoe could get hit with this storm if it takes the original track it took the last time through. It will then hit Utah and finally Colorado around the 17th.
Ok here we go, the pattern is cycling and I think I have a handle of the cycle length to predict the recurring storms. The cycle length is critical for accurate predictions. The first storm is December 4th. If you read my last post you know that I’ve already predicted each of these storms (17th) a month in advance. These events are directly related to the pre-cycle that is the genisis of the repeating pattern. If I am correct in the cycle length then these storms will recur on the 4th and 17th. When we are within model range I will have a better idea of the size of the storm and locations. Make Your Reservations
Storm 1 will begin off the BC coast and move SE through Washington, Montana, Wyoming and finally Colorado. This is what it should look like:
Let’s sit back and watch. If this happens then I’m on it. Mike
This years pattern started evolving in late August and September and started cycling in October. We have already had a couple of good storm systems come through this first cycle. Take a look.
These are the storms that will repeat in the coming cycles. So our first reservation prediction is for December 4 and December 17 for the mountains in Colorado. The storms will also hit British Columbia, Washington state, maybe Oregon and maybe the Tahoe region. The second storm on the 17th will likely hit the Tahoe region.