Predicted Hurricane on the Horizon

On April 10th I wrote a blog about how the pattern has the ability to predict hurricanes, you can find that post here. My peers have been developing this technology so I thought I would give it a go. So a little background on the previous blog post. When there is a hurricane during the new cycle, those hurricanes and their paths have a strong tendency to repeat the following hurricane season. The pattern sets up in the fall and then cycles regularly until the new pattern emerges in late summer.

On August 27th last year, Hurricane Laura hit Louisiana coast. Then on October 9th Hurricane Delta hit in nearly the same spot, the southwestern Louisiana coast, which was day 4 of the cycle (46.5 day cycle length). Fast forward to today there is a tropical storm forming in nearly the same place and is on target to hit the Louisiana coast on August 30th which is day 7 of this years cycle. Below is the charts of last years GFS and the predicted chart for August 30th. I chose September 4th as the likely date with a +/- of 7 days. Next year I will know that I can be sharper with my predicted dates. I won’t go into how I calculated the Sept 4 date with things like adding half days and lag, but I will say that I learned a lot from this experience. I will update with a new blog in the coming days. Thanks for spending a few moments reading the blog. If you have any questions be sure to ask them in the comments section or send me an email to Mike@FutureSnow.co.

Tropical Storm Ida
Hurricane Delta

LaNina Returns?

Courtesy of : https://www.aer.com

Vail, Beaver Creek, Breckenridge and other Colorado Mountains

For skiers, snowboarders, and snow enthusiasts in Colorado, Utah, Nevada, and California, a La Nina or neutral winter can be an unwanted guest. During La Nina winters, the strength of storm systems are reduced meaning usually less snow accumulation. When comparing snowfall charts below for Vail Colorado, in the winter of 2018-19 (El Niño) versus 2020-21 (La Niña), there were 10 events over 6+ inches during El Niño , 7 for La Niña. Overall snowfall for the resort was 281” 18/19 and 192” 20/21 season.
There were 77 snow events, in 18/19, where it snowed at least 1 inch vs. 56 events last season.

ElNino
La Niña

The Pattern for this Winter

The dynamic coupling of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and the cycling pattern, create the path and strength of storms throughout the northern hemisphere . Since ENSO is predicted to be either neutral or La Niña for this upcoming winter, we can expect a similar amount of snowfall events and accumulation like last year.
Each year is different, however, and the positioning of the other Tele-connections, such as the Arctic oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), Madden Julian oscillation (MJO), and the Pacific North American pattern (PNA) can change the results—good or bad.
Think of a vehicle with the four teleconnections as tires. The size of the engine is ENSO, El Niño is like a giant SUV (Excursion or Hummer) La Niña is like a minivan and Neutral conditions are like the huge car your Grandpa drove (Picture 1970s Buick).
Neutral years are wild cards. That’s why I use the grandpa reference. Some grandpas drive 30 in a 50 mph zone, while others, like my grandfather, didn’t know there was a speed limit.

Much more to come as we get a little closer to October. Stay tuned.


Weather forecast for Vail Colorado. Weather forecast for Summit county. Weather forecast for Beavercreek Colorado. Weather forecast for Breckenridge Colorado.