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Forecast Blog

Predicted Hurricane on the Horizon

By August 27, 2021December 2nd, 20212 Comments

On April 10th I wrote a blog about how the pattern has the ability to predict hurricanes, you can find that post here. My peers have been developing this technology so I thought I would give it a go. So a little background on the previous blog post. When there is a hurricane during the new cycle, those hurricanes and their paths have a strong tendency to repeat the following hurricane season. The pattern sets up in the fall and then cycles regularly until the new pattern emerges in late summer.

On August 27th last year, Hurricane Laura hit Louisiana coast. Then on October 9th Hurricane Delta hit in nearly the same spot, the southwestern Louisiana coast, which was day 4 of the cycle (46.5 day cycle length). Fast forward to today there is a tropical storm forming in nearly the same place and is on target to hit the Louisiana coast on August 30th which is day 7 of this years cycle. Below is the charts of last years GFS and the predicted chart for August 30th. I chose September 4th as the likely date with a +/- of 7 days. Next year I will know that I can be sharper with my predicted dates. I won’t go into how I calculated the Sept 4 date with things like adding half days and lag, but I will say that I learned a lot from this experience. I will update with a new blog in the coming days. Thanks for spending a few moments reading the blog. If you have any questions be sure to ask them in the comments section or send me an email to


Tropical Storm Ida
Hurricane Delta


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