Twilight Zone

Introduction of the Pacific Oscillation

Pattern Transition

Every year at the autumn equinox, September 21, the sun sets at the north pole and all that remains is twilight, until the first week of October. Then it becomes perpetual darkness for the winter. When the switch is flipped from twilight to perpetual darkness, a switch is also flipped beginning the new weather pattern for the next 12 months. This is exactly what is occurring now. We are beginning to see the new pattern, and along with it the new cycle length.

Chart Evolution

Although personally I have been using the cycling pattern for eight years now, it wasn’t until three years ago that I started getting organized by creating charts. They were crude at first, but they worked. I printed off blank calendars and pasted a couple together to create my first “cycle length” chart.

By using this chart I could track storms and snowfall amounts, then use the information in later cycles. The cycle length for the above chart, was 58 1/2 days for the 2019/20 season.

For the 2020/21 season, I started using spreadsheets. The spreadsheets were much easier to track from cycle the cycle. It also cut down on simple mistakes.

Pacific Oscillation PO

Now I am using XCel to create a powerful new tool that will help with forecasting. I am calling it the Pacific Oscillation (PO). The PO will index the Pattern similar to how the Arctic Oscillation charts it’s daily variability in winter. I will publish the PO index right here at FutureSnow.
A good example of how it works will be forthcoming, however I can tell you that the storm that just came through Colorado, showed up very well on the index. The index will track the strength of the cycle against the other teleconnections.

PO Index Mock-up

New Pattern Emerging

New Pattern Emerging

A brief study of last winters pattern

Last year‘s La Niña winter produced below average snowfall for most of the country. The exception was the Pacific Northwest, specifically north of Oregon. There were two big systems that were about two weeks apart In the middle of this year’s 46.3 day cycle. I called them co-signature or CoSig storms because they were about equal in their production. They produced well in every cycle, with cycle 3, Feb 4th, being the biggest producer for CoSig 2 and cycle 4 March 14th for Co-Sig 1.

Below is the evolution of CoSig 1

CoSig 1 Summer Evolving Pattern
This image caught me because of September 11. So I called his feacher the Twin Towers.
Bigger and Stronger
Not as strong
Back to strong

CoSig 2

The second signature storm occurred a little less than two weeks after CoSig 1 each cycle. A quick note about the second storm, when it came through in February, the energy from this system dislodged the polar vortex and caused it to wobble. A week later it hit Texas.