Model Runs GFS Surface, GFS 24/hr Snow, Euro 24/hr Snow, GFS 500mb Flow Probabilistic Forecast from the National Weather Service Forecast Our previous forecast totally sucked, and I apologize for it. We are combining our model forecast data with an AI algorithm for our own “in house” model. …
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Mike, can you explain the differences between the Colorado storms forecasted and listed in the narration above, and the forecast shown in the spreadsheet? The narration above lists many more frequent storms than the spreadsheet does. Thanks!
Good question. One of the skills I lack is how to explain what I’m thinking, I’m just not a very good communicator. Gary says I speak a different language lol.
The Colorado storms listed in the Dec 10 “narration” is an outline of the overall pattern and the storms are not always listed in the “predictions” due to two things, the timing of the forecast and the probability of storms happening, based on how many times they have hit in previous cycles.
This year is a very hard year to forecast because the cycle length is over 65 days in length. Meaning it took a long time to record the data (over 65 days), then we had to figure out the cycle length.
In the meantime, before we knew the cycle length, we were making forecasts based on harmonic patterns. There is a harmonic pattern, a half-pattern, that is similar to whole pattern. It’s like this year’s cycle length is a short cycle, because it is so similar to the whole pattern, but it’s not.
How do we know? There are small details that don’t align and a specific storm, the storm that is hitting California Wednesday, matches perfectly to when it came back in October. That storm is this year’s signature storm. Not that it is the best storm producer, it is just the storm that stands out the most. That storm takes a very specific path, going over a ridge and then sliding all the way down to southern California.
That helps, thanks. This is certainly a very strange weather year for Colorado, and the West as a whole.