Jan 22, 2025
GFS 24 hr Snow thru Feb 6
GFS 500mb, Euro and GFS ensemble model run thru model range (click/animate)
500 millibar is about halfway up in the atmosphere (around 18,000 feet). The ensemble model runs are a group of separate forecasts combined to provide a better forecast.
Short Term Snowfall from National Weather Service
Forecast Discussion
We have quite a bit to get through, in terms of systems, for the next week. First there is a small wave that is moving though Colorado today that will bring 2-4 for the northern mountains and areas along the divide. Bitter cold temps will persist until we get a break on Friday. Expect -10 for the northern mountains and -30 for the divide. The winds along the divide today will be gusting up to 45 mph–ouch, put on your artic gear today and stay warm.
The next system hits the Pacific Northwest Thursday night. It will drop down to Lake Tahoe late Friday and get cut-off from the jet stream. The main energy will hit Utah and northern Colorado Friday morning. Confidence is not high in what will happen, so we’ll just have to be patient and give the models another day to figure out a solution. Either way, it still looks like a good storm and will bring much needed snow to Lake Tahoe, southern Utah and southern Colorado.
In regard to the model forecasts, it appears they are struggling to figure out what will happen once the ridge breaks down around the 31st. More tomorrow.
Pattern Discussion from Monday
We are at that juncture where we have one more storm before the Ridge Pattern (Northwest Flow) breaks down. Then it’ll switch to the Pacific Storm pattern for approximately 3 weeks. The Pacific Storm pattern is good for Lake Tahoe, in fact, during the switch last cycle was pretty productive. The Jan 23rd prediction is running a couple of days late, but that is normal for Lake Tahoe.
You may notice that Lake Tahoe Predictions have a 3-day tolerance, that is due to the lower jet stream path that is less reliable. The storm is showing up and it will have been a 3-week dry stretch when it arrives, very similar to last cycle.
Below is the cycle comparison between last cycle and the current cycle for Lake Tahoe. Last cycle was a little more productive due to the strength of the MJO, but both cycles had dry stretches during the Ridge of Death” that lasted 16 days, which seems like an eternity.
The return to snow last cycle had an MJO that was in Phase 5. The MJO is projected to be in phases 3 and 4, which traditionally is bad for snow production. The good news is it is moving rapidly and is projected to be in Phase 5 by January 30, or so.
There is a second series of storms that is not on the prediction chart, that should hit Feb 5-7th if indeed the MJO is in phase 5. This is an example of yesterday’s discussion, where this storm would be listed, and the teleconnection box would be monitoring this storm to give additional guidance. If it’s in 5, 6, 7, or 8, the storm would be green lighted, neutral thru 1-4 red lighted.
The Super Bowl LIX in New Orlene’s
The picture to the left was last cycle. Now it is harder to predict storms within a day once they are past the mountains, so let’s take a look at the LRC model.
The model shows rain before the game on Saturday flowing into Sunday. Of course, the game is inside but there could be a thunderstorm or potentially strong storms. Something to monitor.
Presidents Day Forecast
There is a storm predicted for the 17th, Presidents Day which is on the Long-range forecast. So, let’s take a look at the timing of the event.
On the long-range predictions, we have a storm Feb 10th. The last time this storm came thru we had a series of three waves that brought feet of snow for both Utah and Colorado. The MJO was in Phase 7–so the pattern was amplified. Will that same setup with the MJO occur again? We’ll have to get a little closer to see what the MJO does. If it makes it to phase 6 as predicted, then there is a good chance the amplified pattern would influence our weather leading up to those storms.
If you are new to FutureSnow, scroll to the bottom of the page for our First Tracks with FutureSnow section. It has information about how and what we do and why the Teleconnections are so important.
Below is the current projection of the MJO thru February 17th. I would put faith in the next 10 days but after that it is pretty uncertain. Below is the projected forecast from the 33-member ensemble model.
Wednesday
We have a small wave rolling thru Wednesday and Wednesday night. This is a small system that is similar to last cycle, that’ll produce 1-3 or 2-4 at the best. I am trying to get every storm on the prediction sheet–these small storms are a gamble, but we are striving to get every storm.
Storm 30-32 LRPC (Long-Range Predictions Chart)
This storm is capitulating between model runs and should end up being a good storm, as last cycle it was very good. The MJO could hurt us, but I think the lag between when it enters phases 3 and 4 should be at the end of development, so fingers crossed it’ll be good. Below is the total snow accumulation and water equivalent charts. Looks good so far.
First Tracks with FutureSnow?
If you are new to FutureSnow check out this page using the link in purple. It will help to explain some of the terminology you will be reading on our blog, along with our methodology using the Cycling Weather Pattern. Thanks for joining our Team!
Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co.