Hurricane On Horizon/Pattern Discussion

Pattern Discussion

Well, here we go, day 38 in what’s left of the 21-22 Pattern.  The new pattern is almost set.  There are eight storms in the new, almost set, pattern.  This is not set in stone, as the first cycle can have random systems in the morphing phase.  Our last post was about the fourth storm, so how could there be eight you might ask?  The GFS goes out 2 weeks into the future, so we project that data to complete the cycle.  

Hurricane Discussion

CSU Tracks Various Weather Companies Predictions

Way back in June (11th) we made our hurricane predictions for this year.  We knew that it would be a quite season and predicted there would be at least one landfall hurricane that would hit around August 14th, September 5th, or September 28th.  Our last predicted date will likely verify and make landfall somewhere between the 28th to October 1st. 

If you look at the chart above, from Colorado State University, you can see other weather forecast outlets and their projections.  You will notice that Weather 2020, far right, is the only company, other than FutureSnow (not listed), that projected a normal hurricane season.  Weather 2020 uses the same technology that we use to forecast, they also predicted this hurricane to make landfall.   You can find Weather 2020 here.

This technology allows us to predict the weather 30-60 days in advance with incredible accuracy (20-21 87%, 21-22 89%), documentation here.  I can’t tell you how satisfying it is to see one of our predictions, that isn’t showing up on the models, suddenly appear and be right on time.  Ok enough bloviating, back to the weather.

Next Week

There are a couple of small waves that will move through Colorado next week before a double-barrel low hits the Pacific Northwest next Thursday morning.  Those low-pressure systems will drop in a trough that will dive down into Utah and Colorado eventually sliding across and exiting through New England.  That will bring heavy snow, for the high elevation Cascades, Wasatch, and Rockies.  This will be a good storm when it returns in December. 

It is too early to tell how this winter will be compared to the last couple of La Nina’s.  What we do know at this point is that it will have a similar number of storms. I don’t expect there to be such a prolonged period of storms tracking north, like the northern pattern of last year.  

Winter Forecast Out October 3rd

Our winter forecast will detail the sequence of storms for the upcoming winter.   We will go into the projected snow totals and percent of average snowfall expected for each region.

Thanks for reading the blog, we are just days away from October!  Mike