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Deep Trough

By September 15, 20222 Comments

Fourth Storm Discussion

We have been talking about this storm for over a week, it is finally here, we can see the details clearly now.  This storm will drop through the Cascades, then the Sierra, over the Wasatch and Rockies before exiting through Minnesota. 


Why does this storm matter?  This storm will be one of the big storms that will repeat over the winter months, so knowing when this storm comes back is paramount to our forecasting.



This system has two parts that are circled, the big and the small.  The small circle will follow the northern track, while the big one gets cut-off from the flow and spins.

Below is an animated GIF that shows the flow.

Now let’s look at the moisture flow.  There is a lot to see here.  First, we have the low that will drop down the coast before moving onshore.

Next, there is the moisture tap from, what will be a tropical storm/hurricane, and monsoonal moisture from the gulf.

Finally, the next Storm in the Gulf of Alaska, has an atmospheric river (AR) that hits Alyeska Resort.

The Toilet Bowl (2019-20)

This storm is reminiscent of the Toilet Bowl way back in 2019.  I called it that because of its particular shape–it looked like it was flushing.  That was during the last El Nino and the signature storm of that pattern.  It was known for dumping 60 inches over a 5-day period in February ’20, right before the shutdown from Corona Virus.

Breck Snow Forecast

Many of you know Larry Schick formerly of OpenSnow and Ski the Northwest blog on Facebook.  He said that “weather has no memory” I loved the poetry of that line, but it is not true, as many of you who follow this blog.  The weather repeats, how else could we be nearly 90% accurate over 30 days out.  

If you know Larry, please have him contact me through this site or my email address Mike@FutureSnow.co.  Or, if you have any questions about our process and technology feel free to shoot me an email as well.

 

Thanks for reading!  Mike

 

2 Comments

  • CWA says:

    Very interesting, thank you.

    So, are you still expecting El Nino this winter, in contrast to many of the headline forecasts going around?

  • Mike Holm says:

    It’s going to be a La Nina, but there was an indication that there would be a switch, but that should have happened by now. There are only 20 years of data of the cycling pattern and after similar long cycle lengths (64 days), followed with an El Nino. I’m kind of rooting for another La Nina, just because it has never happened (4 in a row), but El Nino’s are by far the better teleconnection for snow.

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