Posted July 26, 2024
Day 25 Cycle 7
It has been quiet the last couple of weeks, as we move into the active part of the hurricane pattern that will begin around August 5th. Looking at the above chart, you can see where we are in the cycle, the blue circle, day 25 of cycle 7. The red boxed areas indicate the possible hurricane dates and locations. This year we have 6 possible location and date ranges. From left to right, the places are Puerto Vallarta (blue), Baja California (blue), Gulf side of Florida (blue), west coast of Florida (blue), Taijuan (pink), and Corpus Christi Texas (blue).
Hurricane Beryl, indicated in yellow at the bottom of the chart, has already hit and has the potential to return again. Similar to last year’s return of Hilary in the form of Lidia. Hurricane Lidia formed two cycles after Hilary, right on time, but took a different path due to the time of year, when the jet stream was stronger. It was pushed to the east earlier and made landfall at Puerto Vallarta, hence the Puerto Vallarta possibility this year. Now that location could still take the original path, of hurricane Hilary, but with an El Nino now forming, it is more likely to take Lidia’s path.
Named Storm off the coast of Baja is Bud
next up is Wei and Ser
This recently named storm is falling apart due to cool waters trickling down from Alaska. Probably shouldn’t have wasted a name on this one, too bad to because you could have used quite a few catch phrases with this one.
Official Predictions for 2024 (Thru October 1) Made June 3, 2024
12 Storms, 6 Hurricanes, 2 Major
Hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30, our forecast is thru October 1st. That is a distinction that needs to be reiterated. By October 1st, a completely new pattern emerges and storms that occur after that date, for the most part, are the new pattern. Meaning the LRC cannot know what that new pattern is until it develops.
Below is a list of major weather companies predictions for this year, compiled by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center. https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/
This is the updated hurricane forecast from Colorado State University and NOAA.
As you can see, FutureHurricanes.com differs greatly from NOAA and CSU. It is a long season, so we’ll keep an eye on the scoreboard. Our partner Weather 2020 has predicted slightly higher numbers than us but still below all other outlets. Below is the list of names for this year’s Atlantic and Pacific season.
Below is the northern hemisphere 500mb heights with vorticity. Pretty clean for now, but around the 5th it should pick up again. The hurricanes that are showing up likely won’t happen–they are in the wrong spot for spawning. I expect the models to start seeing our potential hurricanes in the next week.
Potential Hurricane Dates/Location (click/enlarge)
Thanks for reading the blog, if you have any questions please comment below or send an email to Mike@FutureSnow.co.
Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains
Crystal Mountain, Mount Hood Meadows, Timberline, 49 Degrees North, Bachelor, Mt Baker,
Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains
Heavenly, Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, Dodge Ridge, Donner Ski Ranch
Utah Wasatch Mountains
Alta, Park City, Deer Valley, Brighton, Snowbird, Brian Head
Colorado Rocky Mountains
Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek, Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland
Aspen Weather, Vail Weather, Lake Tahoe Weather, Breckenridge Weather, Beaver Creek Weather, Copper Mountain Weather, Arapahoe Basin Weather, Winter Park Weather, Telluride Weather, Crested Butte Weather, Eldora Weather, Loveland Weather, Alta Weather, Park City Weather, Deer Valley Weather, Snowbird Weather
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