Posted July 13, 2024
Potential Hurricane Dates/Location (click/enlarge)
Hemisphere View, all clean
Summer Pattern
Not much going on at the moment, we are in a summer pattern with the jet stream around its peak northward position. Much of the West and Midwest is under high pressure heat dome that has produced quite a few record temperatures. That high pressure looks to persist over the next 10 days, as you can see in the animation above.
What you are looking at is a ridge and clockwise circulation over southwest California, Nevada, Arizona New Mexico, Utah Southern Idaho, Southwest Wyoming and Colorado. This is a normal part of summer and is part of the summer monsoon season which lasts from June 15th to September 30th.
I have been working on quite a few projects for the upcoming season. First of all, I am working on the southern hemisphere pattern as practice for the upcoming northern hemisphere pattern. The southern hemisphere is unique, compared to the northern hemisphere, due to much less land mass and more ocean.
All of the waves, ridges and troughs are backwards (upside down). This makes the waves look more like “waves” rolling in on a beach. Check out the illustration below.
The current pattern is cycling and transitioning into the next pattern, likely a longer pattern length. Below is a list of cycle lengths over the past 20 years with the shortest length of 37.5 and longest of 75 days. Cycle length can vary from 3-6 days over a calendar pattern. We calculate the length with the average of all the cycles. Storms usually oscillate between 1-2 days of the date of the previous cycle. That is how we can predict storms with a pretty high rate of accuracy.
2002-2003: 35 to 40 days (37.5-day average)
2003-2004: 52 to 56 days (54-day average)
2004-2005: 73 to 77 days (75-day average)
2005-2006: 60 to 62 days (61-day average)
2006-2007: 42 to 48 days (45-day average)
2007-2008: 52 to 54 days (53-day average)
2008-2009: 50 to 53 days (51.5-day average)
2009-2010: 58 to 62 days (60-day average)
2010-2011: 50 to 52 days (51-day average)
2011-2012: 45 to 49 days (47-day average)
2012-2013: 50 to 57 days (53.5-day average)
2013-2014: 55 – 61 days (58-day average)
2014-2015: 43 to 50 days (46.5-day average)
2015-2016: 47 to 52 days (49.5-day average)
2016-2017: 56 to 61 days (58.5-day average)
2017-2018: 44 to 51 days (47-day average)
2018-2019: 46 to 52 days (49-day average)
2019-2020: 55 to 61 days (58-day average)
2020-2021: 43 to 49 days (46-day average)
2021-2022: 61 to 67 days (64-day average)
2022-2023: 47 to 53 days (50-day average)
2023-2024: 42-47 Days (45-day average)
Last Week
“We’re on to Baja”
Hurricane Beryl is hitting my son’s college in Rolla Missouri this morning. He is a junior majoring in Aeronautical Engineering–pretty easy.
Baja is up next as a possible hurricane. Based on the path and indications from last fall, this storm is unlikely to be a major hurricane, more likely a tropical storm, but there is an area of extremely warm water that is beginning to churn up a lot of activity.
Although we are transitioning to La Nina, or neutral ENSO conditions, the area is ripe for spin-ups. I have been watching the southern hemispheric pattern and there is definitely a lot of cold water migrating up the South American coast backfilling the lower right-hand section, or Nino 1+2.
Let’s take a look at the lates GFS and compare to the original path. This is not a strong storm, but it is during the right time and takes the same path as before.
Now let’s compare this to last year’s storm/path. The path is nearly identical. It is something to watch in the next 48 hours or so. This storm returns August 31st.
From July 8
Corpus Christi Landfall
We are on day 6 of cycle 8 of this year’s LRC (Lezak’s Recurring Cycle), Hurricane Beryl made landfall last night at one of our target cities of Corpus Christi Texas. It came in just under the wire of our 5 day +/- time frame, hitting the Trifecta–date, path and location.
None of this would be possible without Gary Lezak’s discovery, 25 years ago, that the weather we experience is not random, but actually cycles and repeats. That is why so many of you who are passionate about skiing and snowboarding support this site. The world is beginning to wake up to our reality. I thank you from the bottom of my heart that I get to bring this technology to you. The endless search for powder.
This closes the chapter on the first set of predictions and begins the next.
Could we have another hurricane in Texas?
We have had a landfall in Texas and if you remember last year, Hurricane Hilary hit, then two cycles later, Hurricane Lidia threatened the same area. It is possible that we could have another hurricane hit Texas in upcoming cycles. The next potential pattern dates are August 16 and September 30.
Baja On the Clock
Our attention now turns to the next possibility on the list, Baja California. Over the last 8, or so, model runs we have been seeing the potential for our Baja storm showing up in the predicted area. It is unlikely this time of year that the storm will take the correct path, due to the jet stream being so far north, but either way this is a strong indication for upcoming cycles, if it harmlessly drifts out to sea.
There is very warm water where the projected storm is showing up. The last few model runs have the storm on a heading towards Hawaii. It will have to survive the cooler waters to reach the islands.
Below is the current ENSO animation from the Climate Prediction Center. Click to animate.
4 Hurricane Predictions in a Calendar Year
Thanks for reading the blog, if you have any questions please comment below or send an email to Mike@FutureSnow.co.
Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains
Crystal Mountain, Mount Hood Meadows, Timberline, 49 Degrees North, Bachelor, Mt Baker,
Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains
Heavenly, Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, Dodge Ridge, Donner Ski Ranch
Utah Wasatch Mountains
Alta, Park City, Deer Valley, Brighton, Snowbird, Brian Head
Colorado Rocky Mountains
Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek, Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland
Aspen Weather, Vail Weather, Lake Tahoe Weather, Breckenridge Weather, Beaver Creek Weather, Copper Mountain Weather, Arapahoe Basin Weather, Winter Park Weather, Telluride Weather, Crested Butte Weather, Eldora Weather, Loveland Weather, Alta Weather, Park City Weather, Deer Valley Weather, Snowbird Weather
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