Posted August 1, 2024
Active Part of the Pattern
We are moving into the active part of the hurricane pattern beginning Saturday thru Aug 22nd. It is similar to the active part of the winter pattern that produced 67 inches at Beaver Creek, 109 inches at Alta, and 77 inches at Lake Tahoe over a 16-day period in cycle 3.
Looking at the spreadsheet, you can see the window I am talking about. There are anchors in the pattern that are indicated with the vertical red columns. The hurricanes from last fall are in between patterns (blue box) with this year’s hurricane at the bottom of the page. That part of the pattern, that produced Beryl, is where we are now, well in a few days anyway.
The blue horizontal bars are Pacific hurricanes and the yellow and orange are Atlantic. When we move into an active pattern, we look for “flares” as I call them, in the pacific indicated on the first GFS chart in circles. These “flares” can become hurricanes such as Beatriz, Hilary, and Lidia from last fall. Those flares are showing up now on the GFS and tell us that the pattern is heating up.
There is already a storm in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Charlotta, which is related to Hurricane Dora. This storm is likely to become a hurricane later today. The projected path is similar to Dora. Those of you who were with us last season may recall our thoughts on Hawaii being hit. This year, it is more unlikely that a Hurricane will make it that far, due to the cooling waters that are projected with La Nina forming. The path this year is too far north to reach Hawaii.
Below is Hurricane Dora’s path.
Dora missed last year by 500 miles to the south, but the position of the Hurricane and High pressure created an amplification that brought the devastating fires to Maui. Tropical Storm Charlotta is too far north to take the same path.
Now compare to the current chart. Do you see the Omega block from last fall? An omega block is an upside-down U shape (indicated in blue above) that you can see in western Canada. That is the cycling pattern.
Official Predictions for 2024 (Thru October 1) Made June 3, 2024
12 Storms, 6 Hurricanes, 2 Major
Hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30, our forecast is thru October 1st. That is a distinction that needs to be reiterated. By October 1st, a completely new pattern emerges and storms that occur after that date, for the most part, are the new pattern. Meaning the LRC cannot know what that new pattern is until it develops.
Below is a list of major weather companies predictions for this year, compiled by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center. https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/
This is the updated hurricane forecast from Colorado State University and NOAA.
As you can see, FutureHurricanes.com differs greatly from NOAA and CSU. It is a long season, so we’ll keep an eye on the scoreboard. Our partner Weather 2020 has predicted slightly higher numbers than us but still below all other outlets. Below is the list of names for this year’s Atlantic and Pacific season.
Below is the northern hemisphere 500mb heights with vorticity. Pretty clean for now, but around the 5th it should pick up again. The hurricanes that are showing up likely won’t happen–they are in the wrong spot for spawning. I expect the models to start seeing our potential hurricanes in the next week.
Potential Hurricane Dates/Location (click/enlarge)
4 Hurricane Predictions in a Calendar Year
Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains
Crystal Mountain, Mount Hood Meadows, Timberline, 49 Degrees North, Bachelor, Mt Baker,
Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains
Heavenly, Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, Dodge Ridge, Donner Ski Ranch
Utah Wasatch Mountains
Alta, Park City, Deer Valley, Brighton, Snowbird, Brian Head
Colorado Rocky Mountains
Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek, Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland
Aspen Weather, Vail Weather, Lake Tahoe Weather, Breckenridge Weather, Beaver Creek Weather, Copper Mountain Weather, Arapahoe Basin Weather, Winter Park Weather, Telluride Weather, Crested Butte Weather, Eldora Weather, Loveland Weather, Alta Weather, Park City Weather, Deer Valley Weather, Snowbird Weather
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