Posted August 4, 2024
Active Part of the Pattern…Engaged
We are in the active part of the hurricane pattern. It is similar to the active part of the winter pattern that produced 67 inches at Beaver Creek, 109 inches at Alta, and 77 inches at Lake Tahoe over a 16-day period in cycle 3.
We are on Day 33 of Cycle 7 and looking at the GFS animated GIF above, you can see TS Debby and also, the possible return of Beryl, that has yet to be named.
Below is the projected path of TS Debby along with the potential storm showing up north of South America. Last is the Pacific storm chart.
If you look at the spreadsheet, you can see where all of these storms fit in the pattern. The exception this year is that the Pacific storms are occurring all at once. Daniel is related to Dora, and Charlotta is similar to TS Irwin from last year.
Below is the path of Beryl from last cycle. I will be surprised if this happens again in back-to-back cycles, but it is showing up nevertheless.
Typhon Watch
The storm that has potential to be our Taiwan prediction is showing up on the chart. We’ll be watching to see how this develops over the next few days.
Official Predictions for 2024 (Thru October 1) Made June 3, 2024
12 Storms, 6 Hurricanes, 2 Major
Hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30, our forecast is thru October 1st. That is a distinction that needs to be reiterated. By October 1st, a completely new pattern emerges and storms that occur after that date, for the most part, are the new pattern. Meaning the LRC cannot know what that new pattern is until it develops.
Below is a list of major weather companies predictions for this year, compiled by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center. https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/
This is the updated hurricane forecast from Colorado State University and NOAA.
As you can see, FutureHurricanes.com differs greatly from NOAA and CSU. It is a long season, so we’ll keep an eye on the scoreboard. Our partner Weather 2020 has predicted slightly higher numbers than us but still below all other outlets. Below is the list of names for this year’s Atlantic and Pacific season.
Below is the northern hemisphere 500mb heights with vorticity. Pretty clean for now, but around the 5th it should pick up again. The hurricanes that are showing up likely won’t happen–they are in the wrong spot for spawning. I expect the models to start seeing our potential hurricanes in the next week.
Potential Hurricane Dates/Location (click/enlarge)
4 Hurricane Predictions in a Calendar Year
Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains
Crystal Mountain, Mount Hood Meadows, Timberline, 49 Degrees North, Bachelor, Mt Baker,
Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains
Heavenly, Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, Dodge Ridge, Donner Ski Ranch
Utah Wasatch Mountains
Alta, Park City, Deer Valley, Brighton, Snowbird, Brian Head
Colorado Rocky Mountains
Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek, Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland
Aspen Weather, Vail Weather, Lake Tahoe Weather, Breckenridge Weather, Beaver Creek Weather, Copper Mountain Weather, Arapahoe Basin Weather, Winter Park Weather, Telluride Weather, Crested Butte Weather, Eldora Weather, Loveland Weather, Alta Weather, Park City Weather, Deer Valley Weather, Snowbird Weather
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