September 23, 2024
Active Part of the Hurricane Pattern
Tropical Storm (TS) John is in the Pacific Ocean just off the coast of Mexico and will likely remain a TS or possibly a Cat 1 Hurricane. This storm will bring major flooding and mudslides to Chiapas, Oaxaca and SW Guerrero near the coastline.
In the Caribbean Sea, just off the Mosquito Coast near Puerto Lempira is the next likely named storm, probably sometime today. Hurricane Hermine is the next named storm, this one could be the big one. This storm has been on the model forecasts for days now, usually with similar paths. We predicted this storm with our revised forecast in early June below in Red. Boxed in Blue below are verified predictions of Hurricane Beryl and Hurricane Debby. Hurricane Debby was from our original prediction chart March 8th. Boxed in Red is the possible storm for this coming Thursday. Click to Enlarge.
If this storm hits Florida, our man-on-the-street, Mike Gardner will broadcast updates live from Walt Disney World. Stay tuned!
Mike Gardner
From Yesterday
First Significant Snowfall
First day of fall brings snowfall to the upper mountains of Colorado. It is always special when we get that first real snowfall, not just a dusting, but 3-4 inches to coat the mountains. This storm is part of the new pattern and where it fits into the new and developing pattern is anyone’s guess.
Today is Day 37 of Cycle 8 of the 23-24 pattern. I do not know what day we are on for the 24-25 cycle yet, but I have some clues. Like I mentioned above, where does this storm fit into the new pattern? Is it early in the cycle, middle or end? We will have to wait and see how it plays out.
Let’s take a look at the 500 millibar animation to see how it came to be. It starts as a trough that is cutoff from the main flow. In future cycles this storm will likely dig deep into Mexico. What is not shown is what happened before all the way back on September 10th. The first wave drops down and brings rain to Utah and Colorado on the 11-12th. That is followed by a second wave that brings precipitation again on the 17th. The third wave, the one that just passed, brought rain to Lake Tahoe Thursday night and hit Colorado overnight. Could this be a Trifecta setting up for this season?
At the end of this clip is the projected Hurricane for the west coast of Florida, predicted back on March 8th, using the cycling pattern. This will be the 8th storm in the last two years that has been predicted months in advance. If the projections hold true, our man on the street, Mike Gardner, will broadcast a live report from Florida when the storms hits. This one could be a big one–Stay tuned.
Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co. We have received many great questions, and it is a pleasure to answer them, so don’t hesitate to ask.
