Next Round of Predictions

Powderhorn Mountain CO

We are in the middle of the predicted storm and the next storm system is coming through on the 7-8th. The winners so far are the southern Mountains of Colorado and Lake Tahoe region. The storm for February 7-8th is showing up on GFS and looks correct, meaning the models have the correct solution. This is one of the features of the Cycling Pattern is you know when the models are right or wrong based on the template of what has happened before. The influences (AO, NAO, PNA, MJO etc) are different and have to be factored in, but the general picture is similar.
The last time this system came through was on day 33 and 34 of last cycle which was December 23 and 24th. Canadian resorts were favored with Kickinghorse reporting 13”, Banff 16”, Crystal Mountain 9” and Mount Hood 8”. Alta had a great powder day of 18+. Tahoe did get snow but not very much Squaw had 4”. The Colorado resorts were all in single digits with Arapaho Basin and Breckenridge reporting 6”.
this time around the cycle is stronger so I expect the totals to be higher. Stay tuned.

GFS from last time through December 23. Upcoming storm February 7-9


3 thoughts on “Next Round of Predictions

  • January 26, 2021 at 8:03 pm
    Permalink

    Was at Beaver Creek the 24th and that storm was underwhelming. Had been hoping for more earlier in the week, but it petered out and only ended up with a couple inches.

    What’s your outlook looking like for March? Will be in Vail the week of spring break, so curious what the pattern looks like for then.

    Reply
  • January 27, 2021 at 12:41 pm
    Permalink

    My predictions for March are for March 17-18th and March 26-31st. Not sure when you’re coming.. The active part of the pattern begins March 12-21, then a lull for about a week, then ramps back up to close out the month. This should be the strongest cycle of a weak snow year.

    Reply
    • January 29, 2021 at 2:23 pm
      Permalink

      14-20, so would be nice if those dates held up.

      Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *