Skip to main content
Forecast Blog

Pattern Verifying

By October 22, 2021One Comment

We have been pouring through charts and analyzing data to verify the pattern. A lot of work goes into deciphering the cycle length. The length of the cycle is critical to accurate long range forecasts. Remember, every fall a new pattern begins and repeats, or cycles, until late summer. The old pattern dissolves and the new pattern becomes established. The new pattern, for this season, was sent back in September.

Recap 20-21 Season

This year‘s pattern will be longer than last years 46 day pattern. The 20-21 season had two main storms that I called Co-Sig 1 and 2, for cosignature storms. It also had a large inactive stretches that lasted for about two weeks. That helped us explain the pattern, because at FutureSnow, we knew when those stretches would occur and most importantly, when the active part of the pattern would return.

If you follow the Tahoe Daily Snow, with Bryan Allegretto, or the Colorado Daily Snow, by Joel Gratz, you’ve seen my comments. It’s not easy convincing people, especially meteorologists, that what they have been told, through years of school and certifications, is wrong. In the comments section of these blogs, I would make predictions and get grilled from other commenters. As the season wore on though, the tide began to turn. Thanks to the Pattern.

First Prediction

The fact that the weather repeats, will someday be taught. For now, you have FutureSnow. My first prediction, this year, was made on Bryan’s blog on October 4th for November 6th. I have never made a prediction this early. Last years first prediction was December 4th. The November 6th storm is just showing up on the models (over 350 hours out). It has the correct look, and most importantly the correct timing. Last time through it hit the PNW—a solid storm that tracked through Whistler down to Mt. Hood and across to Montana and Jackson Hole. It just clipped NorCal, Utah and Colorado. I am hoping with a stronger Jet that if will drop down further. Will keep an eye on this one. Mike

Last time through

One Comment

Leave a Reply