Predictions/Scorecard

Challenge, who can name this resort? No Googling! Answer in comments

We are in the part of the pattern where the Heady/LRC becomes clear. We have completed 2 cycles and have compiled 92 days (1,152 GFS snapshots) worth of data, snow totals from resorts and not to mention all of the data from August and September where the pattern developed. I am releasing Future Snows predictions out to March 12th, as well as the results from every prediction to date.

Predictions/Results

Updated January 8th

January 25-26
Let’s dive into the predictions for the upcoming storms. January 25-26 for Colorado. This prediction was made back on December 13th. This storm occurs on days 21-23 of each cycle. The first time through back on December 26 Vail received 10” snow and additional rain, the second time through 12”. January and February are usually the strongest producing cycles, so let’s hope in this La Niña year it comes through. When I compiled this report I added Utah resorts, specifically Alta for January 25-26. I don’t have resort need it for the first cycle, however it’s clear by GFS that they received precipitation. The second time through they get 15”. Lake Tahoe was missed the first cycle, but did receive snow on the second cycle. So I will give Lake Tahoe a “maybe” as they are on the edge of this year’s pattern.

February 7-9

The storm is for Utah resorts, specifically Alta February 7-8. Alta received 12” during the first cycle, and 20” during the second cycle. For Colorado resorts the first cycle kicked off a week of storms on days 34 through 41. Vail received 25” during that week with the southern resort of Wolf Creek 28” of powder over 3days. The second time through four Colorado resorts was not as productive. They’ll get a paltry 4” during the first wave and an additional 9” with the second wave. In past years, cycle three has been more like cycle 1, but stronger—let’s hope that continues but either way, it will be an active period. Lake Tahoe was missed on the first wave, but picked up 13 inches at Sugar Bowl on dates 36 and 37. Lake Tahoe you get a strong maybe—I’ll give you a heads up if it appears the storm is big enough on the model runs.

February 18 19

The February 18 storm kicks off in the Pacific Northwest. I added this storm January 3 which is 46 days out from this publication. The Pacific Northwest is getting the snow this year. The snow goes somewhere every year and obviously this year it’s PNW and Canada. In the first cycle Crystal Mountain received snow from days 41 through 46 of the pattern. The only reported Snowfall came on day 45 and 46 when they started recording at the resort (15”). During the second cycle over the same time period hey received 33”. It’s a safe bet that Valentine’s Day is when the storm will begin but the best days should be the 18-19th for Crystal Mountain.

March 11-12

Colorado Resorts. Cycle 4 storm on days 21-22 of the cycle. I’ll update this prediction after cycle 3.

3 thoughts on “Predictions/Scorecard

  • January 7, 2021 at 3:05 am
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    personally don’t care where….anywhere is paradise you can go ski right now!

    Reply
  • January 8, 2021 at 5:17 pm
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    In reviewing your methodology, it appears there is some reluctance by meteorologists to accept the CPH due to the lack of a physical process that could explain how the global atmospheric wave pattern observed in October can become persistent through the ensuing winter. Have you read the work of Judah Cohen who publishes a blog about the Arctic Oscillation? He hypothesizes that the snow cover observed around October around parts of the northern hemisphere may initiate a series of poleward heat fluxes tied to persistent ridges of high pressure. These excite vertically propagating waves which then can affect the Polar Vortex, which may feed back to the surface in a self-reinforcing cycle. This is a plausible way that observations in October may set off a recurring pattern for the following winter.

    Reply
    • January 8, 2021 at 7:34 pm
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      That is a very interesting theory, I have not read it but will. It aligns with my theory of quasi-permanent ridges that become anchored around that same time period. The cycling pattern begins establishing the new cycle in August and progresses through September and seemingly triggered by twilight at the north pole.
      Thanks for your comment!

      Reply

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