The roller coaster ride of the December 4 storm which was on, then early, then late, then over, may not be over after all. That is the trouble with models. I’m not ready to give up on the storm just yet. Now the storm is showing back up again about the time it was supposed to. So we will keep an eye on it. The models were showing a ridge building up in the west which was going to zap a lot of energy from the storm, or I could simply be wrong on the length of the cycle. I have poured over everything again and I still keep coming up with the same number. But, there is another possibility, in terms of cycle length that could fit.
When it comes to the pattern, it CAN have a ridge in one cycle and not another. The storms are still on time but are affected by the present conditions. Remember I mentioned the teleconnections in each cycle effects the outcome from cycle to cycle, such as AO, MJO, etc. I this is a current snapshot of what the storm will look like. It develops the same as it did the last time it came through, but it has to go over the ridge and down to Colorado.
We’re getting a lot closer, so we will now soon. Stay tuned.