Well we are in the boring stretch of “the pattern“. we are beginning to see signs of life. In both cycles to date, there was a 13 day stretch where very little precipitation occurred in the western US. There were a few storms that stayed well to the north and it is happening again in cycle 3. However the weak systems that came through in past cycles are gaining strength in the present cycle, because January and February are the strongest months of the Pattern. The ridge in the west is right on schedule but is in slightly more favorable location, this cycle, for storms to reach Colorado. They won’t be much but at least they will get something.
‘The storm door should be open around the 20th with a more linear flow of the coast. So that gets us to the signature storm of the 20/21 pattern. I expect it to dig further south this time through and I expect it to hit the Tahoe area with a more direct path instead of a glancing blow. I can’t guarantee it will hit, because Tahoe is on the southern edge of this years pattern, but I think it will—fingers crossed.
The storm system coming the 23-24th should loo similar to the last 2 times it came through, positively tilted with energy extending deep into Canada. I have it projected ti hit Whistler beginning on the 22nd.
This last picture is just another version of the December 11 system. The circle in blue is part two. So if the set-up is similar to the December storm then we could have two pretty nice systems a day apart, or if it’s like the first time through, we need the energy to dig deeper south. The Cycling Pattern usually mirrors itself, meaning cycle 1 resembles cycle 3 and cycle 2 resembles cycle 4 and so on. So my main inclination is that it’ll be more like the first time through. However, early in the first cycle the pattern is “finding its identity”. So this next time through will set the stage for how the present cycle will behave.
The next Pattern system after that is February 7-8th.