Thank You!
I just wanted to say thank you subscribing. I usually give a thank you/farewell in May, but wanted to say this early as most of you are still stopping by every day. This has been a great experience; I look forward to writing and sharing this technology with you every morning.
Like I have said many times, I never intended to do this, if Joel (Gratz Colorado Daily Snow) and Bryan (Allegretto Tahoe Daily Snow) would have listened to me from the beginning, they would be bringing this to you–in a much watered down way. I was too inexperienced to explain the theory properly at the time.
That is not a slight to them, they are amazing forecasters, but it takes a different skill set to present this the way it should be presented. You have to be brash and unafraid to fail, and that is just not in a meteorologist play book. They use too many terms like “likely, should, probably, and other euphemisms meant to deflect the possibility of being wrong. Ok, I use those words too, as I am slowly becoming like them, but you get the point.
Thank you for telling your friends about us on Facebook and other platforms. Keep spreading the word. I am all over that social media channel now, a little late to the party. It reminds me of the old days on OpenSnow when a bunch of us would banter daily in the comments section. Keep up the good work.
Below is the adjusted traffic chart filtering out most of the spam. You can see that you have made a difference in the arc of this years trajectory. That is just thru Jan 17th, so we have 3-4 months to pad the numbers.
We have come a long way since the 20-21 season. We now have our own weather model from our partnership with Gary Lezak and Weather 2020. All of our forecast systems and data collection are automated. Our partnership with Weather Bell brings you the best model animations and forecast charts available.
Finally, our free Snow Concierge service continues to grow. As of Jan 1st, we have given 22% more forecasts than the previous year, and there are 3 months left to go–so take advantage as much as you like.
500mb Flow, Euro and GFS ensemble model run thru February 3rd
500 millibar is about halfway up in the atmosphere (around 18,000 feet). The ensemble model runs are a group of separate forecasts combined to provide a better forecast.
Below is just another version of the Euro Ensemble. I like forecast model number 41, which do you like?
Forecast
MLK day
Scattered snow showers throughout Colorado with snow totals in the 1-3 range.
Wednesday
We have a small wave rolling thru Wednesday and Wednesday night. This is a small system that is similar to last cycle, that’ll produce 1-3 or 2-4 at the best. I am trying to get every storm on the prediction sheet–these small storms are a gamble, but we are striving to get every storm.
Next year we will introduce a new format for our prediction chart that will have 3 different levels of storms: weak, moderate and strong. The storm that is coming on the 25-29th would be considered strong, based on its history. A strong storm can return weak due to teleconnection differences, but we will have an adjustable output on the predictions tab that will monitor these variances between cycles.
A look at the Long-range from the European Ensemble model
I’ve diagramed the first chart to the left, from a few days ago, so you can get a sense of what to look for on the following charts. The first two are Colorado with Wolf Creek and Aspen. Wolf has had a rough year after a great start and this coming storm for Sunday and Monday looks promising.
Next, Lake Tahoe has had it even worse. It’s not a big storm but A-storm, at least.
LRC Model from Weather 2020
Taking a look at one of the early runs from the LRC model, you can see a few storms that stick out as possible 12+ powder days. Feb 17, 23, 31/April 1-2.
We’ll keep an eye on these storms and see how the model run performs. Other notables, you can look at the chart of counties with ski resorts and the projected liquid water equivalent (top chart) and snowfall for the month of February. We are still tweaking the model to get the proper output–so take this with a grain of salt.
One of our long-range goals is to find a way to predict large storms, in our “endless search for powder”. Each year we get better at reading the teleconnections in an attempt to solve their cycle lengths. The LRC model is one of these tools, still in its infancy, that helps with the other influences.
GFS 500 mb, GFS 24/hr All Snow, Euro and GFS Ensemble Total Snow
If you are new to FutureSnow check out this page using the link in purple. It will help to explain some of the terminology you will be reading on our blog, along with our methodology using the Cycling Weather Pattern. Thanks for joining our Team!
Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co.
This site is what powder chasers really need since you can plan for the long-term. Anyone can read the NWS weather forecast and come to the same conclusion as the short-term forecasting sites like OpenSnow, so those sites offer no value for a subscription. FutureSnow has been a game changer and I am happy to have been a subscriber for 2 years now and I expect to be one for many more years. I have friends come up to Colorado every year to visit for the Super Bowl and this year looks like we may have soft conditions based on your Feb 7-10 forecast.
Thanks from a daily reader,
Darren
Absolutely Darren, if I were to book a trip, I would definitely use our tech to chase. We are getting better at identifying when the big storms are coming. We are working on our late February and March chase dates now. I have mentioned many times that I think we will have a major event sometime in the next two months, similar to the 19-20 season in Colorado.