Twilight Zone

Introduction of the Pacific Oscillation

Pattern Transition

Every year at the autumn equinox, September 21, the sun sets at the north pole and all that remains is twilight, until the first week of October. Then it becomes perpetual darkness for the winter. When the switch is flipped from twilight to perpetual darkness, a switch is also flipped beginning the new weather pattern for the next 12 months. This is exactly what is occurring now. We are beginning to see the new pattern, and along with it the new cycle length.

Chart Evolution

Although personally I have been using the cycling pattern for eight years now, it wasn’t until three years ago that I started getting organized by creating charts. They were crude at first, but they worked. I printed off blank calendars and pasted a couple together to create my first “cycle length” chart.

By using this chart I could track storms and snowfall amounts, then use the information in later cycles. The cycle length for the above chart, was 58 1/2 days for the 2019/20 season.

For the 2020/21 season, I started using spreadsheets. The spreadsheets were much easier to track from cycle the cycle. It also cut down on simple mistakes.


Pacific Oscillation PO

Now I am using XCel to create a powerful new tool that will help with forecasting. I am calling it the Pacific Oscillation (PO). The PO will index the Pattern similar to how the Arctic Oscillation charts it’s daily variability in winter. I will publish the PO index right here at FutureSnow.
A good example of how it works will be forthcoming, however I can tell you that the storm that just came through Colorado, showed up very well on the index. The index will track the strength of the cycle against the other teleconnections.

PO Index Mock-up



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