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By December 3, 20216 Comments

A Look Back at November 

November is in the books and let’s take a brief look back. here is the comparison between November this year and last.  There are some similarities to last year, in these back to back La Niña’s. Quite a few more dry holes, such as the Los Angeles area up through Nevada.  Then there is a huge swath through the CONUS from New Mexico up to Canada.

November 2021

November 2020

Now compare the last two November’s to October of this year  October was very wet.  The precipitation holes were much smaller, but still there.  What we can infer from these “donut holes” is that they will continue.
The Pattern does not reach those areas, so the only thing that can change that are cut-off lows or a deep trough that redirects storms from the normal path.

October 2021

Pattern Change Today

Ice breaks Friday
The jetstream shifts from the upper flow (red arrows), to the lower flow today. That is also the shift from the northern part of the pattern, to the active west part of the pattern.  That coincides with October and November.  October was the active west part of the pattern, and November was the northern part of the pattern

So we can conclude that, this years pattern, December will be wet, and January will be dry.  The good news though, there were small systems that came through, during that dry period, that will be much larger the next time through, due to the strength of the jet stream.

The length of the cycle does not exactly lineup like what we saw in October and November, but it’s close.

Short Term Forecast

Snow forecastSnow overnight tonight begins in the Pacific Northwest. Freezing levels around 1000 feet, so mostly snow for Crystal Mountain and Stevens Pass.   That system moves east Sunday through northern Idaho and Montana.



Monday through Wednesday Forecast

The next wave in this series of storms begins from the British Columbia coast on Monday 6th.  Tuesday, the storm arrives in Utah and western Colorado.  Wednesday eighth, the storm moves through New Mexico.

Jetstream flow


Colorado forecastIf you’ve been following along you’ll remember the storm I coined the “Trifecta”.  That storm Returns on the 9-10th.

Much more to come!

Thank you for reading the blog, if you have any questions, as always, feel free to comment below, or send me an email to


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