January 28, 2025
Surface thru Feb 3
GFS 24 hr Snow thru Feb 7
GFS, Euro Ensemble Model thru Feb 7, All Snow Let It Go, GFS 500 mb (thru model range) Click Animate
Possible Trifecta February 17th
Sometimes you get nearly an exact match of the cycling pattern. That is what you see in the comparison chart. Back in November, the storm on the left side (round circulation over the Four Corners region) was cut-off from the flow and produced 26″ at Wolf Creek, 13″ at Telluride and 9″ at Powderhorn. How much will hit this time thru? The projected totals from the NWS looks really similar.
We were expecting this storm to be cut-off next cycle, around March 12th, not now. This year’s pattern has given us fits. We have missed 3 storms this set, all in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and the storms have been weak.
We are sitting at 85.29% accurate, which is a very low number. In fact, I don’t think we have ever been that low–prey to Ullr that it doesn’t go any lower sheesh. Fortunately, we are almost thru this unlucky set of predictions and will be on the next set beginning with the Feb 9th PNW storm. Now that the ridge has broken down these storms should be back on track.
Amplification looks eminent, as the MJO is projected to move into phase 5 by February 5th. There is a lag of a few days once the area of enhancement moves into the Pacific. Our predicted storms for February 10th could benefit from this amplification, or the February 17th storm, which the LRC model has liked since we made our Presidents Day Forecast.
Take a look.
We ran the numbers again and have the same result. 
Does the LRC model have a sense of what the MJO amplification will do to the upcoming storm. To be fair, the storm was a good producer last time thru, so we’ll see how the storm does this time thru.
The LRC model predicts over 400% of average for the storm which would be around 2-3+ feet of snow. Could this be the big 60-inch storm we have been hoping for this year?
The long wait for the San Juans is over tonight as the storm moves in by midnight. Tomorrow we should have Winter Storm Warnings and heavy snow with 1-2 feet possible* for Wolf Creek. Telluride, Silverton and Taos should be close to double digits.
*Loss of testicular fortitude using words like possible.
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