Jan 26, 2025
Surface thru Feb 3
GFS 24 hr Snow thru Feb 7
GFS, Euro Ensemble Model thru Feb 7, All Snow Let It Go (thru model range) Click Animate
Pattern Discussion
The last storm of the northwest flow pattern is moving through; we will be entering the Pacific storm part of the pattern for the next 3-4 weeks after a brief break. It’s not really a break considering we have the cut-off system spinning and it looks to finally get caught in the flow by Wednesday.
This was not expected to happen this early, March yes, the positively tilted flow pinched it off, diluted and delayed the strength and timing. This storm did get cut-off in November and Wolf Creek had 25″. It does not have the moisture available to reach those depths but when it does hit (maybe tomorrow, probably Tuesday) it’ll bring at least 4-8 and hopefully more. Thats why they say, “cut-off low weatherman’s woe”.
In the GIF from the chart above, you can see the steep “ridge of death” move to the west and the storms drop down to California, move east and dive deep into the Four Corners region and Mexico. This is how the ridge pattern breaks down and switches to the Pacific pattern. This is the fourth time it has done this, and each one is a little different. I will make an animation of the four cycles for you to compare.
Teleconnections
I am liking what I am seeing with the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation). It is moving through phase 3 and will quickly enter phase 4 by midweek. It enters phase 5 around February, and this will help amplify the pattern. The convection that the MJO creates adds fuel to storms when it is in the western Pacific. It seems to draw energy away when it is in the Indian Ocean (phases 3 and 4). The Artic Oscillation (AO) helps steers the jet stream. When it is positive the jet stream stays farther north, negative the storms dive farther south.
First Tracks with FutureSnow?
If you are new to FutureSnow check out this page using the link in purple. It will help to explain some of the terminology you will be reading on our blog, along with our methodology using the Cycling Weather Pattern. Thanks for joining our Team!
Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co.
