October 21, 2024
Banff, PNW and Alaska
GFS 500 mb flow, All Snow Let it Go, and 10,000 ft temps, click to enlarge/animate
Colorado is Open
Wolf Creek is open, and it looks like Arapahoe Basin will be opening soon, the temps aren’t that great for snowmaking in the next 5 days, but the next storm comes in Tuesday/Wednesday. Check out the Temp forecast above.
Next Storm
Tonight and Tomorrow
We have a fast-moving wave that is ripping through Oregon, Idaho, southern Montana and Wyoming. Not much expected but this storm is an indicator of the cycle length. Watch for this system to move back through and count the days in between, and you’ll know the length of the cycle. I’ll try to remember to give a hint.
This system won’t give us much, just 3-5 likely for Brundage, Jackson Hole, Targhee, and maybe as far north as Big Sky.
Monday thru Sunday (3 waves)
The next storm on the Test Predictions List (below) begins Monday morning in the Pacific Northwest south to Lake Tahoe. The first wave hits Utah and Colorado by Tuesday. The timing is being worked out by the model forecasts, but this should begin warm with the first wave and then cold with the second wave overnight Wednesday (Tahoe) and Friday/Saturday for Utah and Colorado. The last time thru this was a decent producer, especially for Utah and Colorado.
Teleconnections
Teleconnections are mixed. We have good numbers from the MJO, but the AO is nearly off the charts positive, sort of canceling each other out. The AO (Artic Oscillation) is interesting because just a couple of months ago, in August, the AAO (Antarctic Oscillation) was off the charts negative. In terms of the LRC, the two have separate patterns (lengths). This year’s southern Hemisphere cycle length is 52 days. Hopefully the next time this storm comes thru, in December, we will have alignment.
LONG-RANGE TEST FORECAST +/- 2 days tolerance
October 29th, Tahoe, Utah and Colorado
November 2 and 4th (2 Waves), Utah and Colorado
November 8-9th, Utah and Colorado
November 13th, Pacific Northwest
November 17th, Utah and Colorado
November 22nd, Utah and Colorado
December 3rd, Utah and Colorado
Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co. We have received many great questions, and it is a pleasure to answer them, so don’t hesitate to ask.
