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Heavy Snow at Targhee, Model Updates

By October 24, 2024No Comments

October 24, 2024

Snowing in Idaho, Montana and Wyoming.  Heavy snow at Grand Targhee (middle pic), but the snow hasn’t reached the other side of the Tetons yet (Jackson Hole).  Next system hits the PNW tomorrow night.

Brundage Snow Stake  Big Sky Ski Resort

Maps thru November 4th

Surface, GFS 500 mb, GFS 24 hr Snow, click to enlarge/animate

   Pacific Northwest Snowfall

Max Model Range All Snow Hemi

from yesterday

Colorado is Open 

Wolf Creek First to Open Colorado

Wolf Creek Pow

Wolf Creek is open, and it looks like Arapahoe Basin will be opening soon, the temps aren’t that great for snowmaking in the next 5 days, but the next storm comes in Tuesday/Wednesday.  Check out the Temp forecast above.

Next Storm

 

Tonight and Tomorrow

We have a fast-moving wave that is ripping through Oregon, Idaho, southern Montana and Wyoming.  Not much expected but this storm is an indicator of the cycle length.  Watch for this system to move back through and count the days in between, and you’ll know the length of the cycle.  I’ll try to remember to give a hint.

This system won’t give us much, just 3-5 likely for Brundage, Jackson Hole, Targhee, and maybe as far north as Big Sky.

 

Monday thru Sunday (3 waves)

1st Wave  2nd Wave  3rd Wave

The next storm on the Test Predictions List (below) begins Monday morning in the Pacific Northwest south to Lake Tahoe.  The first wave hits Utah and Colorado by Tuesday.  The timing is being worked out by the model forecasts, but this should begin warm with the first wave and then cold with the second wave overnight Wednesday (Tahoe) and Friday/Saturday for Utah and Colorado.  The last time thru this was a decent producer, especially for Utah and Colorado. 

Teleconnections

Teleconnections are mixed.  We have good numbers from the MJO, but the AO is nearly off the charts positive, sort of canceling each other out.  The AO (Artic Oscillation) is interesting because just a couple of months ago, in August, the AAO (Antarctic Oscillation) was off the charts negative.  In terms of the LRC, the two have separate patterns (lengths).  This year’s southern Hemisphere cycle length is 52 days.  Hopefully the next time this storm comes thru, in December, we will have alignment. 

LONG-RANGE TEST FORECAST +/- 2 days tolerance

October 29th, Tahoe, Utah and Colorado

November 2 and 4th (2 Waves), Utah and Colorado

November 8-9th, Utah and Colorado

November 13th, Pacific Northwest

November 17th, Utah and Colorado

November 22nd, Utah and Colorado

December 3rd, Utah and Colorado

Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co.  We have received many great questions, and it is a pleasure to answer them, so don’t hesitate to ask.

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