October 25, 2024
Maps thru November 4th
GFS 500 mb, GFS 24 hr Snow, click to enlarge/animate
7 and 10-Day GFS, 7 and 10-Day Euro
First Storm Tues-Thur Second Storm PNW Thur, UT Fri, NoCO Fri, Third Storm UT CO Mon Nov 4
We are beginning to get a little more definition on the incoming storms next week that we forecasted on our Test Forecast.
The first storm moves in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) late Sunday or early Monday morning. That storm will slide into California overnight Tuesday and move into Utah and Colorado Tuesday morning.
Temperatures are looking good and will generally be about 5-10 degrees colder than last storm. Utah totals for the first wave look modest, as of now, I would say 5-10 for the Cottonwood resorts, but I am expecting those numbers to go up
This should be a nice storm for southern Colorados San Juan range, so Wolf Creek (open), Telluride to Purgatory will be in the heavy snow category (6-24 range). For the central and northern resorts, the first wave should bring 5-10. I will dive into the totals more on Sunday, but here are quite a few early projections from the National Blend of Models.
First the total precipitation totals followed by the snow totals. Utah and California do not have updated numbers yet, but Park City (last) does.
In the upper left corner are the locations.
Teleconnections
Teleconnections are mixed. We have good numbers from the MJO, but the AO is nearly off the charts positive, sort of canceling each other out. The AO (Artic Oscillation) is interesting because just a couple of months ago, in August, the AAO (Antarctic Oscillation) was off the charts negative. In terms of the LRC, the two have separate patterns (lengths). This year’s southern Hemisphere cycle length is 52 days. Hopefully the next time this storm comes thru, in December, we will have alignment.
LONG-RANGE TEST FORECAST +/- 2 days tolerance
October 29th, Tahoe, Utah and Colorado
November 2 and 4th (2 Waves), Utah and Colorado
November 8-9th, Utah and Colorado
November 13th, Pacific Northwest
November 17th, Utah and Colorado
November 22nd, Utah and Colorado
December 3rd, Utah and Colorado
Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co. We have received many great questions, and it is a pleasure to answer them, so don’t hesitate to ask.