October 28, 2024
Good storm running through Canada
Maps thru November 4th
GFS 500 mb, GFS 24 hr Snow, click to enlarge/animate
5 and 7-Day GFS, 5 and 7-Day Euro
Forecast
Today PNW Tomorrow Utah and Colorado
The storm is hitting the Pacific Northwest and Lake Tahoe as I am writing this. Snow levels will be in the 7-8000 ft range for PNW resorts, with snowfall in the 2-4 or 3-6 range. Lake Tahoe is in the 9000 ft range with 1-3 likely. The second wave will roll thru tonight with similar numbers.
Tonight, Utah and Colorado
The storm gets cranking by 10 pm tonight and snow levels won’t be a problem at temperatures will fall into the low 20’s, possibly upper teens by 2 am. Heavy snow projected for Alta, Snowbird, Brighton with totals by morning in the 5-10 range.
The system moves into southwest Colorado by 10pm. This is looking pretty good for the San Juans, as expected. We should be in the 2-4 or 3-6 range overnight with strong numbers expected for Tuesday. The Central and northern mountains will see snow, but not much is expected. Maybe 1-3 on the high end.
Tuesday
Heavy snow continues in Utah with probable Winter Storm Warnings for the Cottonwood resorts, with totals in the 6-12 range by late afternoon. Temps cold in the mid-20’s at base and mid-teens in the alpine. Solitude 4-8, Snowbasin 2-4, Park City 2-4, Deer Valley 2-4, and Brian Head 4-8.
Colorado has its deepest totals in the southern mountains where the San Juans will have close to a foot, maybe more, by the time the lifts close at Wolf Creek. It will be windy, in the 20-30 mph range with gusts in the low 50’s so be prepared. Temps will not be cold, about freezing level at base and mid -20’s up top, but the wind chills will make it feel brutally cold. Storm totals thru Wednesday: Wolf Creek 10-18, Telluride 4-8, Silverton 4-8, Purgatory 3-6, Crested Butte 2-4, Vail/Beaver Creek 3-6, Arapahoe Basin 2-4, Breckenridge 1-3, Aspen 1-3, Winter Park 3-6.
Snowfall Totals thru Mon 11th
How to Read: These plots are the Euro model ensemble that uses 51 versions of data to create these charts. When you have tight groupings, it means the models generally agree. The farther apart, or scattered the data bars, the less agreement. In the upper left corner of the chart is the location. Colorado has really good data stations that are close to the resorts, or the passes, near the resort.
Teleconnections
Teleconnections are mixed. We have good numbers from the MJO, but the AO is nearly off the charts positive, sort of canceling each other out. The AO (Artic Oscillation) is interesting because just a couple of months ago, in August, the AAO (Antarctic Oscillation) was off the charts negative. In terms of the LRC, the two have separate patterns (lengths). This year’s southern Hemisphere cycle length is 52 days. Hopefully the next time this storm comes thru, in December, we will have alignment.
LONG-RANGE TEST FORECAST +/- 2 days tolerance
October 29th, Tahoe, Utah and Colorado
November 2 and 4th (2 Waves), Utah and Colorado
November 8-9th, Utah and Colorado
November 13th, Pacific Northwest
November 17th, Utah and Colorado
November 22nd, Utah and Colorado
December 3rd, Utah and Colorado
Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co. We have received many great questions, and it is a pleasure to answer them, so don’t hesitate to ask.
