October 29, 2024
Maps thru November 4th
HRRR (high resolution), NAM (N American Model), Euro, GFS Surface, click to enlarge/animate
Storm Totals Euro, GFS, NAM, WRF for Colorado and Utah
Storm Totals National Weather Service
Forecast
Utah
Heavy snow today throughout Utah and Colorado as the system moves in. It is running a little late as the Cottonwood mountains are just getting started, but nevertheless it will still be good snowfall totals, just a smidge lower than expected. Temperatures will drop throughout the day and bottom out in the low 20’s at base level and upper teens up top.
Storm Totals thru Thursday Morning
Brian Head 8-15, Alta/Snowbird 6-12, Brighton 5-10, Solitude 5-10, Snowbasin 4-8, Park City 3-6
Colorado
Heavy snow today in the southern mountains where temperatures will be dropping as we progress farther into the storm. Similar story for the central and northern mountains. Rain below 8000 feet as snow levels drop throughout the day. Temperatures will crash to the lower 20’s to upper teens above 8000 ft.
San Juans: Wolf Creek 1-2 Ft, Telluride 1-2 Ft, Silverton 6-12, Purgatory 6-10, Montrose 6-10 Central Mountains: Aspen 10-16, Monarch 3-6, Crested Butte 3-6 Powderhorn 4-8 Northern Mountains: Vail/Beaver Creek 8-12, Winter Park 6-10, Steamboat 6-10, Copper Mtn 4-8, Breckenridge 4-8, Arapahoe Basin 4-8, Keystone 3-6, Eldora 3-6
Pattern Discussion
Next storm hits the PNW Halloween, Utah Sunday and Colorado Monday
We are in day 23 of the 24-25 pattern. This is a good storm; we are getting a little help from the MJO (Phase 6) and now that the AO is coming back to a normal range the colder air is helping. Where will these strength indicators be the next time this system comes back in December is the question. As the pattern changes so do the teleconnections. We will be watching to see how these swings in the Artic Oscillation and Madden Julian Oscillation occur as we get into December.
The trajectory of this storm and the storms that are coming on Nov 2-4th, match the outlook that I have had for the upcoming season. I have no reason to change my thinking that Colorado will be above average, Utah average, and the Pacific Northwest and Canada above average.
It will be cool once we get the LRC model tuned to the new cycle length, sometime in late November or early December, to see the season projections. We will do our official winter forecast once we get the model data. For now, and I don’t want to jinx it, but the dry conditions that we had in August and September should disappear. Fingers crossed!
The storm for the 8-9th is not on the models yet. They should be picking it up anytime now, or I’m off on the cycle length.
LONG-RANGE TEST FORECAST +/- 2 days tolerance
October 29th, Tahoe, Utah and Colorado Verified
November 2 and 4th (2 Waves), Utah and Colorado On Schedule
November 8-9th, Utah and Colorado Not on GFS
November 13th, Pacific Northwest On Schedule
November 17th, Utah and Colorado Not in Range
November 22nd, Utah and Colorado Not in Range
December 3rd, Utah and Colorado Not in Range
Snowfall Totals thru Mon 11th
How to Read: These plots are the Euro model ensemble that uses 51 versions of data to create these charts. When you have tight groupings, it means the models generally agree. The farther apart, or scattered the data bars, the less agreement. In the upper left corner of the chart is the location. Colorado has really good data stations that are close to the resorts, or the passes, near the resort.
Teleconnections
Teleconnections are mixed. We have good numbers from the MJO, but the AO is nearly off the charts positive, sort of canceling each other out. The AO (Artic Oscillation) is interesting because just a couple of months ago, in August, the AAO (Antarctic Oscillation) was off the charts negative. In terms of the LRC, the two have separate patterns (lengths). This year’s southern Hemisphere cycle length is 52 days. Hopefully the next time this storm comes thru, in December, we will have alignment.
LONG-RANGE TEST FORECAST +/- 2 days tolerance
October 29th, Tahoe, Utah and Colorado
November 2 and 4th (2 Waves), Utah and Colorado
November 8-9th, Utah and Colorado
November 13th, Pacific Northwest
November 17th, Utah and Colorado
November 22nd, Utah and Colorado
December 3rd, Utah and Colorado
Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co. We have received many great questions, and it is a pleasure to answer them, so don’t hesitate to ask.
