October 30, 2024
Maps thru November 8th
GFS Surface, All Snow, click to enlarge/animate
Pattern Discussion (Day 24)
We are in day 24 of the 24-25 pattern. The storm is wrapping up today with a few more inches to go for Colorado. The next system drops in tonight in the PNW and will skirt Lake Tahoe at first and then drop a second wave that will produce on Saturday morning.
First let’s talk about the Pacific Northwest. The storm is looking deep for Oregon resorts Mt Hood, Bachelor, and Hoodoo where 1-3 feet is possible by Friday night. For the northern Cascades, not as bullish but still decent, Crystal Mountain in the 6-12 range, Baker and Stevens Pass in the 4-8 range. Snow levels low, 3-4000 ft.
Below are the forecast totals for the first wave for Lake Tahoe and the PNW, followed by 5-day Totals.
LONG-RANGE TEST FORECAST +/- 2 days tolerance
October 29th, Tahoe, Utah and Colorado Verified
November 2 and 4th (2 Waves), Utah and Colorado On Schedule
November 8-9th, Utah and Colorado Not on GFS
November 13th, Pacific Northwest On Schedule
November 17th, Utah and Colorado Not in Range
November 22nd, Utah and Colorado Not in Range
December 3rd, Utah and Colorado Not in Range
Snowfall Totals thru Mon 11th
How to Read: These plots are the Euro model ensemble that uses 51 versions of data to create these charts. When you have tight groupings, it means the models generally agree. The farther apart, or scattered the data bars, the less agreement. In the upper left corner of the chart is the location. Colorado has really good data stations that are close to the resorts, or the passes, near the resort.
Teleconnections are mixed. We have good numbers from the MJO, but the AO is nearly off the charts positive, sort of canceling each other out. The AO (Artic Oscillation) is interesting because just a couple of months ago, in August, the AAO (Antarctic Oscillation) was off the charts negative. In terms of the LRC, the two have separate patterns (lengths). This year’s southern Hemisphere cycle length is 52 days. Hopefully the next time this storm comes thru, in December, we will have alignment.
LONG-RANGE TEST FORECAST +/- 2 days tolerance
October 29th, Tahoe, Utah and Colorado
November 2 and 4th (2 Waves), Utah and Colorado
November 8-9th, Utah and Colorado
November 13th, Pacific Northwest
November 17th, Utah and Colorado
November 22nd, Utah and Colorado
December 3rd, Utah and Colorado
Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co. We have received many great questions, and it is a pleasure to answer them, so don’t hesitate to ask.