Nov 17, 2024
Daily Snow Stake
First Strong AR of the Season
We have our first strong Atmospheric River (AR) hitting the Pacific Northwest Wednesday. There is a good website if you like to geek out and follow AR’s and extreme weather events for the west. The Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, yep, you probably would have named it the same, here is the link: https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/
We track AR’s, as they are a part of the repeating pattern. They don’t always repeat in the same place, but this one that is hitting Wednesday, came thru last cycle and I’ll bet, will hit Lake Tahoe the next time this comes through. It may hit this time, we’ll see if reaches that far south, as there is a lot of time between now and the back side of the storm Thursday or Friday.
Ok let’s look at the charts. The first chart is last cycle and compare that to Wednesday’s chart. Obviously, Wednesday’s storms are much larger in scale, due to a stronger jet stream and seasonal differences, but they are a match, in terms of the repeating pattern.
Next, let’s take a look at the whole system.
This is from the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, it is the water vapor transport, sorry for the quality.
Next Set of Predictions Manana
LONG-RANGE TEST FORECAST +/- 2 days tolerance (Made October 15th)
October 29th, Tahoe, Utah and Colorado Verified
November 2 and 4th (2 Waves), Utah and Colorado Verified
November 8-9th, Utah and Colorado Verified 2 Early
November 13th, Pacific Northwest Verified
November 17th, Utah and Colorado On GFS 2 days late
November 22nd, Utah and Colorado On GFS 2 days early
December 3rd, Utah and Colorado Not in Range
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