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Deep in Revelstoke, AR on the Way

By November 17, 2024No Comments

Nov 17, 2024

Daily Snow Stake 

   

First Strong AR of the Season

We have our first strong Atmospheric River (AR) hitting the Pacific Northwest Wednesday.  There is a good website if you like to geek out and follow AR’s and extreme weather events for the west.  The Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, yep, you probably would have named it the same, here is the link:  https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/

We track AR’s, as they are a part of the repeating pattern.  They don’t always repeat in the same place, but this one that is hitting Wednesday, came thru last cycle and I’ll bet, will hit Lake Tahoe the next time this comes through.   It may hit this time, we’ll see if reaches that far south, as there is a lot of time between now and the back side of the storm Thursday or Friday. 

Ok let’s look at the charts.  The first chart is last cycle and compare that to Wednesday’s chart.  Obviously, Wednesday’s storms are much larger in scale, due to a stronger jet stream and seasonal differences, but they are a match, in terms of the repeating pattern.

 

Next, let’s take a look at the whole system.

This is from the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, it is the water vapor transport, sorry for the quality.

 Next Set of Predictions Manana

 

LONG-RANGE TEST FORECAST +/- 2 days tolerance (Made October 15th)

October 29th, Tahoe, Utah and Colorado                           Verified

November 2 and 4th (2 Waves), Utah and Colorado        Verified

November 8-9th, Utah and Colorado                                  Verified 2 Early

November 13th, Pacific Northwest                                      Verified

November 17th, Utah and Colorado                                   On GFS 2 days late

November 22nd, Utah and Colorado                                  On GFS 2 days early

December 3rd, Utah and Colorado                                     Not in Range

Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co.  We have received many great questions, and it is a pleasure to answer them, so don’t hesitate to ask.

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