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Strong Storm Ponding the Pacific Northwest

By November 18, 2024No Comments

Nov 18, 2024

Daily Snow Stake 

Revelstoke Snow Forecast Mt Hood Meadows Snow Forecast Crystal Mountain Snow Forecast Stevens Pass Snow Forecast Solitude Snow Forecast Mt Hood Timberline Snow Forecast  Deer Valley Snow Forecast Snowbasin Snow Forecast Alta Snow Forecast

2-, 4-, 7-, and 10-Day Snowfall Totals

High Resolution HRRR, NAM, Euro Ensemble, 2-Day totals from NWS

   

Surface thru Nov 27th

Forecast Summary

Snow is in the forecast for just about everywhere in the west.  Over the next 10 days it will get deep in California and up the coast to British Columbia. 

The Artic Oscillation is predicted to move into negative territory over the next few days.  That will give us a boost of cold air that will backfill the storm with subzero temperatures at 10,000 ft overnight tonight and tomorrow.  You can see the cold temps in the chart to the right.

Multiple Waves in the next 10 Days

In Canada, PNW, and the Northern Rockies, deep snow over the next 10 days with 2-4 feet likely for Mt Hood and Mt Bachelor.  1-3 feet likely for Whistler Blackcomb, Revelstoke, Sun Peaks, Powder Highway resorts, Banff, Crystal Mountain, Stevens Pass, Mt Baker, Snoqualmie, Big Sky, Grand Targhee, Jackson Hole and Brundage.  These number could be on the low side.

Utah and Colorado will have snowfall today and tomorrow with the next system hitting around Saturday night or Sunday morning. Below is the high resolution NAM model for Utah and Colorado, click to animate.

Lake Tahoe Wednesday or Thursday. Below is the European ensemble model for the next 10 days.  Click to Animate


First Strong AR of the Season

We have our first strong Atmospheric River (AR) hitting the Pacific Northwest Wednesday.  There is a good website if you like to geek out and follow AR’s and extreme weather events for the west.  The Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, yep, you probably would have named it the same, here is the link:  https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/

We track AR’s, as they are a part of the repeating pattern.  They don’t always repeat in the same place, but this one that is hitting Wednesday, came thru last cycle and I’ll bet, will hit Lake Tahoe the next time this comes through.   It may hit this time, we’ll see if reaches that far south, as there is a lot of time between now and the back side of the storm Thursday or Friday. 

Ok let’s look at the charts.  The first chart is last cycle and compare that to Wednesday’s chart.  Obviously, Wednesday’s storms are much larger in scale, due to a stronger jet stream and seasonal differences, but they are a match, in terms of the repeating pattern.

 

Next, let’s take a look at the whole system.

This is from the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, it is the water vapor transport, sorry for the quality.

 Next Set of Predictions Manana

 

LONG-RANGE TEST FORECAST +/- 2 days tolerance (Made October 15th)

October 29th, Tahoe, Utah and Colorado                           Verified

November 2 and 4th (2 Waves), Utah and Colorado        Verified

November 8-9th, Utah and Colorado                                  Verified 2 Early

November 13th, Pacific Northwest                                      Verified

November 17th, Utah and Colorado                                   On GFS 2 days late

November 22nd, Utah and Colorado                                  On GFS 2 days early

December 3rd, Utah and Colorado                                     Not in Range

Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co.  We have received many great questions, and it is a pleasure to answer them, so don’t hesitate to ask.

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