Posted July 3, 2024
Double Beryl?
4 Hurricane Predictions in a Calendar Year
Beryl will hit Jamaca today, by noon, likely a Category 4 when it hits. It is just about 100 hours out from hitting Brownsville/Corpus Christi and I am confident enough to call this an “almost verified” hurricane. Almost because it has to hit the location.
If it does hit, that will be the date, path, and location, or as I like to call it, the Trifecta. It will also be the fourth hurricane predicted in one calendar year. Hilary, Idalia, Lidia and now Beryl.
Ok enough of that and back to the storm. I have been watching the track and I keep seeing this open wave that we first saw when Beryl was spawned. You can see that little open wave and area of low pressure that is trailing.
Well, the GFS has it hitting Houston. It is still a long way out but something to monitor. Could there be a double Beryl hit on the Texas coast?
From yesterday.
Latest Model Runs from GFS, HAFS A, HAFS B, HMON
From Friday
First off let me say that it has been a quiet beginning to Hurricane season so far. Looking back to last year, we had a similar start that picked up around the beginning of July. August ramped up with the Hawaii fires fueled by Hurricane Dora (8th). Hilary hit San Diego August 20th. Tropical Storm Howard hit Corpus Christie August 22. Finally, Idalia hit Florida August 30th.
There are quite a few predictions that will come and go in the next couple of weeks. Florida Atlantic Side (June 28), Typhoon in Taiwan (June 29), Corpus Christie (July 2), Puerto Vallarta (July 7), finally, Baha California (July 17).
Looking at the above chart thru July 5, we can see a small disturbance in the Yucatan Peninsula that is an indicator for the Corpus Christie prediction, which returns August 16th.
The much larger tropical possibility picks up just northwest of South America. This storm is called Invest 95L, at the moment and may turn into a tropical storm in the next couple of days. This storm was not predicted, based on last year’s pattern, but it could be a reflection from Hurricane Idalia which would have a return date around July 10th.
We use a time window of +/- 5 days, which would place this storm within that window. However, according to the LRC, this storm should not return because it occurred during the previous year’s final cycle (22-23 pattern).
Typhoon Prediction
Taiwan is kind of hard to see but it is the island in the upper middle part of the chart. There is a storm that takes the correct path and within the predicted date range, that we have been watching since our last post. This is a strong indicator of a return next cycle, August 13 when the potential is stronger.
Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains
Crystal Mountain, Mount Hood Meadows, Timberline, 49 Degrees North, Bachelor, Mt Baker,
Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains
Heavenly, Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, Dodge Ridge, Donner Ski Ranch
Utah Wasatch Mountains
Alta, Park City, Deer Valley, Brighton, Snowbird, Brian Head
Colorado Rocky Mountains
Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek, Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland
Aspen Weather, Vail Weather, Lake Tahoe Weather, Breckenridge Weather, Beaver Creek Weather, Copper Mountain Weather, Arapahoe Basin Weather, Winter Park Weather, Telluride Weather, Crested Butte Weather, Eldora Weather, Loveland Weather, Alta Weather, Park City Weather, Deer Valley Weather, Snowbird Weather
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