Posted July 2, 2024
Hurricane Beryl
Above is the preferred track from my take on the LRC and the cycling pattern. This model run has it going thru the Yucon Peninsula towards Corpus Christi. The storm is quite strong and is expected to hit Jamaka tomorrow, as a category 3 or 4, with up to 150 mph winds, then weaken due to the topography of the island. The model solution takes the track thru the Yucon peninsula and then the storm is downgraded to a tropical storm.
The latest track makes landfall at Corpus Christi. It is still possible for a slight right turn to “thread the needle” between the Yucon peninsula and Cuba. Which was how it tracked in the fall. If that happens it will likely be a hurricane when it makes landfall in Texas. Below is the projected path of the storm from last year, along with tropical indicators illustrated from Weather 2020. These charts and indicators are how we predict hurricanes.
Latest Model Runs from GFS, HAFS A, HAFS B, HMON
From Friday
First off let me say that it has been a quiet beginning to Hurricane season so far. Looking back to last year, we had a similar start that picked up around the beginning of July. August ramped up with the Hawaii fires fueled by Hurricane Dora (8th). Hilary hit San Diego August 20th. Tropical Storm Howard hit Corpus Christie August 22. Finally, Idalia hit Florida August 30th.
There are quite a few predictions that will come and go in the next couple of weeks. Florida Atlantic Side (June 28), Typhoon in Taiwan (June 29), Corpus Christie (July 2), Puerto Vallarta (July 7), finally, Baha California (July 17).
Looking at the above chart thru July 5, we can see a small disturbance in the Yucatan Peninsula that is an indicator for the Corpus Christie prediction, which returns August 16th.
The much larger tropical possibility picks up just northwest of South America. This storm is called Invest 95L, at the moment and may turn into a tropical storm in the next couple of days. This storm was not predicted, based on last year’s pattern, but it could be a reflection from Hurricane Idalia which would have a return date around July 10th.
We use a time window of +/- 5 days, which would place this storm within that window. However, according to the LRC, this storm should not return because it occurred during the previous year’s final cycle (22-23 pattern).
Typhoon Prediction
Taiwan is kind of hard to see but it is the island in the upper middle part of the chart. There is a storm that takes the correct path and within the predicted date range, that we have been watching since our last post. This is a strong indicator of a return next cycle, August 13 when the potential is stronger.
Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains
Crystal Mountain, Mount Hood Meadows, Timberline, 49 Degrees North, Bachelor, Mt Baker,
Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains
Heavenly, Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, Dodge Ridge, Donner Ski Ranch
Utah Wasatch Mountains
Alta, Park City, Deer Valley, Brighton, Snowbird, Brian Head
Colorado Rocky Mountains
Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek, Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland
Aspen Weather, Vail Weather, Lake Tahoe Weather, Breckenridge Weather, Beaver Creek Weather, Copper Mountain Weather, Arapahoe Basin Weather, Winter Park Weather, Telluride Weather, Crested Butte Weather, Eldora Weather, Loveland Weather, Alta Weather, Park City Weather, Deer Valley Weather, Snowbird Weather
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