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Hurricane Beryl

By June 30, 2024No Comments

Posted June 30, 2024

Hurricane Beryl

The storm we have been watching has moved rapidly into hurricane strength, Hurricane Beryl is on track to hit Corpus Christi.  We still have a long way to go before that happens with pretty stiff odds against it.  The storm will have to overcome strong sheer from the west and the topography of the Antilles and Yucatan peninsula.  

Below is the projected path of the storm from last year.  Last year this wave threaded the needle between Cuba and the Yucatan.  The storm is running late, but within the tolerance of our projected timeframe.

Below is the latest satellite imagery from NOAA, click to animate and the project path.

 

From Friday

First off let me say that it has been a quiet beginning to Hurricane season so far.  Looking back to last year, we had a similar start that picked up around the beginning of July.  August ramped up with the Hawaii fires fueled by Hurricane Dora (8th).  Hilary hit San Diego August 20th.  Tropical Storm Howard hit Corpus Christie August 22.  Finally, Idalia hit Florida August 30th.  

There are quite a few predictions that will come and go in the next couple of weeks.  Florida Atlantic Side (June 28), Typhoon in Taiwan (June 29), Corpus Christie (July 2), Puerto Vallarta (July 7), finally, Baha California (July 17). 

Looking at the above chart thru July 5, we can see a small disturbance in the Yucatan Peninsula that is an indicator for the Corpus Christie prediction, which returns August 16th.  

The much larger tropical possibility picks up just northwest of South America.  This storm is called Invest 95L, at the moment and may turn into a tropical storm in the next couple of days.  This storm was not predicted, based on last year’s pattern, but it could be a reflection from Hurricane Idalia which would have a return date around July 10th. 

We use a time window of +/- 5 days, which would place this storm within that window.  However, according to the LRC, this storm should not return because it occurred during the previous year’s final cycle (22-23 pattern).

Typhoon Prediction

Taiwan is kind of hard to see but it is the island in the upper middle part of the chart.  There is a storm that takes the correct path and within the predicted date range, that we have been watching since our last post.  This is a strong indicator of a return next cycle, August 13 when the potential is stronger.

 

 

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