Jan 15, 2025
The next Storm (28 and 29 on chart below), is in the Pacific Northwest and will be moving thru Montana and Wyoming tonight, arriving in Utah and Colorado tomorrow morning.
Pattern Discussion
The next 2 charts that follow are the surface level and upper-level GFS 500 mb thru model range. Looking at the 500 mb chart you can see the persistent, steep rainbow shape off the west coast, that ridge begins to breakdown towards the end of the month. This will switch the flow back to the Pacific Storm pattern we have discussed previously.
This pattern opens the door for Lake Tahoe to finally get back in the game with storms, instead of being high and dry. Also, the Santa Ana winds will shift and likely dissipate. Those winds are associated with the Ridge Pattern that creates high pressure throughout the Great Basin. The ridge pattern will return around February 23rd.
Incoming Storm
24 hr All Snow from the GFS, followed by the Euro and GFS Total Snow thru model range.
National Weather Service total snowfall thru Sunday morning.
Snow and artic temperatures will be making its way through the Pacific Northwest today dropping 2-4 for the northern Cascades, with higher totals around Whistler, above 5000ft and Revelstoke. That storm takes a southeast track through Big Sky, Targhee and Jackson Hole that should drop 2-4 or 3-6.
Utah and Colorado get in on the action early Saturday morning. Expect 2-4 or 3-6 for most resorts in little and big Cottonwood canyon. In Colorado, the northern resorts Steamboat, Vail, Winter Park and along the divide should be in the 3-8 or 4-8 range.
Next Storm Sunday Night-Monday
This is a weak trailing wave that will follow the aforementioned system. More on the second wave tomorrow.
A look at the Long-range from the European Ensemble model
I’ve diagramed the first chart so you can get a sense of what to look for on the following charts.
LRC Model from Weather 2020
Taking a look at one of the early runs from the LRC model, you can see a few storms that stick out as possible 12+ powder days. Feb 17, 23, 31/April 1-2.
We’ll keep an eye on these storms and see how the model run performs. Other notables, you can look at the chart of counties with ski resorts and the projected liquid water equivalent (top chart) and snowfall for the month of February. We are still tweaking the model to get the proper output–so take this with a grain of salt.
One of our long-range goals is to find a way to predict large storms, in our “endless search for powder”. Each year we get better at reading the teleconnections in an attempt to solve their cycle lengths. The LRC model is one of these tools, still in its infancy, that helps with the other influences.
GFS 500 mb, GFS 24/hr All Snow, Euro and GFS Ensemble Total Snow
If you are new to FutureSnow check out this page using the link in purple. It will help to explain some of the terminology you will be reading on our blog, along with our methodology using the Cycling Weather Pattern. Thanks for joining our Team!
Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co.