Jan 1, 2025
Daily Snow Stakes
Just getting started with the Jan 1 Storm
GFS thru Jan 14th
This model run displays all precipitation by type.
GFS 24 hr Snowfall thru Jan 14
This model run shows snowfall over a 24-hour period.
Euro and GFS Total Snow thru Jan 10th (click/animate)
This model shows total accumulation from each system throughout the period selected.
Forecast Summary
Snow today in the Pacific northwest with totals in the 3-6 range for Crystal, Mt Baker, Mt Hood and Mt Bachelor. Storm continues tomorrow with similar totals. In Utah, the storm arrives later this afternoon with minor accumulations until this evening. Expect 10-16 inches tomorrow first chair for Alta, Snowbird and Brighton, with Park City/Canyons and Deer Valley in the 4-8 category.
In Colorado, the action begins tonight with 6-10 likely for Vail/Beaver Creek, Steamboat, Winter Park and the divide resorts Arapahoe Basin and Loveland. Aspen, Crested Butte will be in the 3-6 range with the southern resorts Powderhorn, Telluride, Wolf Creek, Purgatory and Silverton in the 1-3 range.
I have had multiple emails about the Southern resorts of Colorado and when a good storm will hit–Sunday has a good chance of producing for the southern resorts. Last time thru there was solid numbers. There is a “kick out” storm that will be developing right over southern Colorado during this date that produced the good numbers and is setting up very similar. Check it out below.
You can see the flow of the jet stream, this is the last storm before the pattern changes to the “northwest flow” pattern, or “ridge of death” for the west coast. The upper-level storm shown in the chart is the key. If it intensifies a little more towards the west than shown, then boom, double digit totals for the San Juans like last cycle. This storm will kick out and be a strong snowstorm for the Midwest, which in the spring cycle will likely produce tornados. Stay tuned.
Next Storm for Lake Tahoe, Utah and Colorado Saturday thru Monday
Once the New Years Storm system moves out, the next system drops in and should be the last Pacific Flow storm before the storm track shifts to the Northwest flow. Below is an animated GIF showing the progression.
Pattern Discussion from Monda
Pattern Change in 10 days
We have a couple of systems left in the Pacific Flow pattern before we move into the Northwest Flow pattern. You can see the Northwest Flow pattern begin to show up above, on the 500 mb flow chart. This flow pattern is a part of the cycling pattern and will alternate with the Pacific Flow pattern until late summer. It will be easy to showcase this type of pattern due to the stark differences between them.
We will discuss this in the coming days, as this changes dramatically the flow of the storms. This shouldn’t be a repeat of late November and early December. Due to the strength of the jet stream this time of year, but it will affect Lake Tahoe and likely Utah in the coming weeks.
For Lake Tahoe, after the Jan 5-6th storm there should be an 8–10-day dry stretch, while the northwest flow is in full strength. That will mean a ridge over Tahoe where storms will go up and over the ridge missing the region.
The storms should skirt Utah, hopefully, and hit northern Colorado. The other influences (teleconnections) on the weather will play a role on the outcome for sure. Presently the MJO, or Madden Julian Oscillation, is projected to be weak until Jan 11th and then move into neutral territory for the foreseeable future.
The Artic Oscillation, or AO is projected to dive deep negative around mid-January, meaning an artic outbreak is likely. Could this bust up the ridge, or does that mean an artic outbreak for the northeast? The northeast does well with the upcoming pattern change, as the storms dive south of Colorado and turn northeast on a direct line for the Northeast mountains.
Long Range Forecast Predictions
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Thank you for reading the blog and as always if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co.
