Dec 31, 2024
Daily Snow Stakes
GFS thru Jan 10th
This model run displays all precipitation by type.
GFS 24 hr Snowfall thru Jan 10
This model run shows snowfall over a 24-hour period.
Euro and GFS Total Snow thru Jan 10th
This model shows total accumulation from each system throughout the period selected.
Forecast Summary
The next storm hits the Pacific Northwest late tonight and will bring snow New Years Day to Washington and Oregon resorts. The storm will track southeast arriving in Utah and Colorado late New Years Day with the bulk of the snow hitting Wednesday night. This round will bring another 4-8 for Utah resorts, and 6-10 likely for northern Colorado resorts Steamboat, Winter Park, Vail and Beaver Creek. We will dial in the totals for tomorrows post.
Next Storm for Lake Tahoe, Utah and Colorado Saturday thru Monday
Once the New Years Storm system moves out, the next system drops in and should be the last Pacific Flow storm before the storm track shifts to the Northwest flow. Below is an animated GIF showing the progression.
Pattern Discussion from yesterday
Pattern Change in 10 days
We have a couple of systems left in the Pacific Flow pattern before we move into the Northwest Flow pattern. You can see the Northwest Flow pattern begin to show up above, on the 500 mb flow chart. This flow pattern is a part of the cycling pattern and will alternate with the Pacific Flow pattern until late summer. It will be easy to showcase this type of pattern due to the stark differences between them.
We will discuss this in the coming days, as this changes dramatically the flow of the storms. This shouldn’t be a repeat of late November and early December. Due to the strength of the jet stream this time of year, but it will affect Lake Tahoe and likely Utah in the coming weeks.
For Lake Tahoe, after the Jan 5-6th storm there should be an 8–10-day dry stretch, while the northwest flow is in full strength. That will mean a ridge over Tahoe where storms will go up and over the ridge missing the region.
The storms should skirt Utah, hopefully, and hit northern Colorado. The other influences (teleconnections) on the weather will play a role on the outcome for sure. Presently the MJO, or Madden Julian Oscillation, is projected to be weak until Jan 11th and then move into neutral territory for the foreseeable future.
The Artic Oscillation, or AO is projected to dive deep negative around mid-January, meaning an artic outbreak is likely. Could this bust up the ridge, or does that mean an artic outbreak for the northeast? The northeast does well with the upcoming pattern change, as the storms dive south of Colorado and turn northeast on a direct line for the Northeast mountains.
Long Range Forecast Predictions
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