Dec 30, 2024
Daily Snow Stakes
GFS thru Jan 10th
GFS thru Jan 10, All Snow Let It Go, 500 mb Flow
Euro and GFS Total Snow thru Model Range
Pattern Discussion
Pattern Change in 10 days
We have a couple of systems left in the Pacific Flow pattern before we move into the Northwest Flow pattern. You can see the Northwest Flow pattern begin to show up above, on the 500 mb flow chart. This flow pattern is a part of the cycling pattern and will alternate with the Pacific Flow pattern until late summer. It will be easy to showcase this type of pattern due to the stark differences between them.
We will discuss this in the coming days, as this changes dramatically the flow of the storms. This shouldn’t be a repeat of late November and early December. Due to the strength of the jet stream this time of year, but it will affect Lake Tahoe and likely Utah in the coming weeks.
For Lake Tahoe, after the Jan 5-6th storm there should be an 8–10-day dry stretch, while the northwest flow is in full strength. That will mean a ridge over Tahoe where storms will go up and over the ridge missing the region.
The storms should skirt Utah, hopefully, and hit northern Colorado. The other influences (teleconnections) on the weather will play a role on the outcome for sure. Presently the MJO, or Madden Julian Oscillation, is projected to be weak until Jan 11th and then move into neutral territory for the foreseeable future.
The Artic Oscillation, or AO is projected to dive deep negative around mid-January, meaning an artic outbreak is likely. Could this bust up the ridge, or does that mean an artic outbreak for the northeast? The northeast does well with the upcoming pattern change, as the storms dive south of Colorado and turn northeast on a direct line for the Northeast mountains.
Forecast Summary
We have more snow on the way for Utah and Colorado today as the storm exits this morning for Utah and this afternoon for Colorado. Scattered snow showers in the Pacific Northwest as they continue on this incredible run of snow on 19 out of 23 days.
This next chart is for Aspen followed by select charts per region. After this storm clears, the next system will roll in the Pacific Northwest tomorrow night, New Years Eve. That storm is pretty weak and is demonstrated on these charts by region below. The first box is the present system and the New Years Day system. Then we get a small wave Thursday and Friday before a stronger system hits Sunday. After that there is not much agreement to the Euro ensemble model and the GFS ensemble as well.
Long Range Forecast Predictions
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