Sept 11, 2024
Hurricane Francine
Last Cycle, you can clearly see the pathway for this storm; this is from July 23-July 26. Watch below as the flow heads right towards Hurricane Francine’s likely landfall location.
July 23-26
Now let’s look at a year prior, back in cycle 0, or the development cycle. It was there and it evolved over the cycles until the ingredients were right for a hurricane.
July 28-30 2023
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Last year we had hurricanes Franklin, Idalia, Margot, Nigel and Lidia during that timeframe. Let’s dive in and look at the expected possibilities for the upcoming peak hurricane season.
Projected Hurricane Possibilities +/- 5 days Hot Spots Florida, Louisiana, Texas
Sept 12 Florida West Coast–Hurricane Debby (last cycle) Sept 18-20–Sept 24 Gulf of Mexico (Louisiana)–Sept 26 Florida Gulf Coast–Sept 30 Corpus Christi (Brownsville Hurricane Beryl) Oct 4 Puerto Vallarta
Corpus Christi and Florida have verified. We hit the Trifecta with Hurricane Beryl predicting the date, location and path. Florida’s Hurricane Debby; we got the date and location correct.
Below are the original set of predictions made March 8 followed by a revised set on June 3rd.
Thoughts on the Winter Forecast
This is an exciting time of year because the new pattern is emerging, and the existing pattern is gradually fading away. According to the LRC, the pattern is established in October and cycles regularly until the following October.
Next week, probably around mid-week, I am going to detail my thoughts on the upcoming winter. I have been watching the development of the new pattern and am analyzing what I believe will occur.
Last year we predicted an above average winter for Utah and most of Colorado. Where will the snow fly this season? I’ll give you one location now; the Pacific Northwest will be above average. Coming off a disappointing season last year, where it was wet, but too warm, look for the Pacific Northwest to bounce back.
