Sept 9, 2024
Atlantic
Here we go again, it has been quite a while since our last hurricane, and it looks like we are going to have another one right in the development zone target we posted last week.
The last 8 model runs from the GFS show a strong storm moving towards the Texas/Lousanna coast with landfall around the 12th.
I have been watching this westward moving energy off of the African coast since August 28th, anticipating one of these waves to be our girl (Francine), for our next named storm. It now appears that this is the one. Our official landfall target is the west coast of Florida, but it can hit anywhere in the gulf due to steering winds and position of high-pressure and low-pressure systems.
Currently it is named Six 06L and will likely be upgraded to a Tropical Storm by late today. Check out the path since August 28, along with the animated GIF with the projection then.
Cycle Chart
Below is the master cycle chart the tracks all of the hurricane data with projected date ranges. We are on day 24 of cycle 8 and the blue box at the bottom middle shows the projected landfall range of this storm. Just a quick note about the chart, blue storms are Pacific and yellow/orange storms are Atlantic.
Once this storm passes, we will be entering the part of the pattern that produced Charlotta and Debbie, followed by Beryl and Ernesto, quite an active period over the next couple of weeks at least.
The LRC that set up last fall projected these storms to fall into certain date ranges. We simply interpret these time periods with our best educated guess as to where the storm will hit. The LRC also gives us clues as to the number of storms, calculated per cycle, and also the quiet periods.
That is why FutureHurricanes.com and Weather 2020 predicted the lowest amount of hurricane activity on the Barcelona Supercomputing Chart by Colorado State. Once we get to October, all of the information we had on the last pattern rapidly fades away because the new pattern takes over. Our hurricane forecast is valid thru October 1.
5 Named Storms to Date
Here is the current list from the Barcelona Supercomputing Center conducted by Colorado State University. You can see we are sitting at 3 named storms for the Atlantic Basin. (click to enlarge) https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/forecast/seasonal-predictions
Last year we had hurricanes Franklin, Idalia, Margot, Nigel and Lidia during that timeframe. Let’s dive in and look at the expected possibilities for the upcoming peak hurricane season.
Projected Hurricane Possibilities +/- 5 days Hot Spots Florida, Louisiana, Texas
Sept 12 Florida West Coast–Hurricane Debby (last cycle) Sept 18-20–Sept 24 Gulf of Mexico (Louisiana)–Sept 26 Florida Gulf Coast–Sept 30 Corpus Christi (Brownsville Hurricane Beryl) Oct 4 Puerto Vallarta
Corpus Christi and Florida have verified. We hit the Trifecta with Hurricane Beryl predicting the date, location and path. Florida’s Hurricane Debby; we got the date and location correct.
Below are the original set of predictions made March 8 followed by a revised set on June 3rd.
Thoughts on the Winter Forecast
This is an exciting time of year because the new pattern is emerging, and the existing pattern is gradually fading away. According to the LRC, the pattern is established in October and cycles regularly until the following October.
Next week, probably around mid-week, I am going to detail my thoughts on the upcoming winter. I have been watching the development of the new pattern and am analyzing what I believe will occur.
Last year we predicted an above average winter for Utah and most of Colorado. Where will the snow fly this season? I’ll give you one location now; the Pacific Northwest will be above average. Coming off a disappointing season last year, where it was wet, but too warm, look for the Pacific Northwest to bounce back.
