Possible Landfall Storm Between September 6-12th, Winter Forecast Soon

August 31, 2024

Atlantic

We are in the quiet part of the pattern and do not expect any landfall events until September 6-12th.  That being said, we are tracking the potentially 6th named storm of the season “Francine” that is currently in the middle of the Atlantic.  

When you look at the GFS chart, the red circles are where we expect development.  The spot in the central Atlantic has been moving westward off the African coast and is the yellow X in the previous chart from the National Hurricane Center. 

Many indications since last October have pointed in the direction that a storm will develop and hit somewhere in the Gulf Coast.  I felt that the strongest indication was a storm would hit the west coast of Florida September 12th, but it could hit anywhere in the Gulf. 

Below are the indicators that gave us the target.  They are from previous cycles during the same time frame as the upcoming storm is expected.  Watch the Gulf of Mexico coast area and notice the strong waves of energy moving through the area towards the Florida coast.

Click to Animate

 

Cycle Chart

We are on day 15 of cycle 8.  There is a lot of information on this chart that is proprietary and I won’t discuss.  I can say that the hurricanes listed are part of the puzzle when we make our forecast using the LRC.  The indicators that occur each cycle, as we pointed out above with the poorly animated GIF’s, are also a part of that puzzle.  

This is an exciting time of year because the new pattern is emerging and the existing pattern is gradually fading away.  According to the LRC, the pattern is established in October and cycles regularly until the following October. 

Thoughts on the Winter Forecast

Next week, probably around mid week, I am going to detail my thoughts on the upcoming winter.  I have been watching the development of the new pattern and am analyzing what I believe will occur.

Last year we predicted an above average winter for Utah and most of Colorado.  Where will the snow fly this season?  I’ll give you one location now, the Pacific Northwest will be above average.  Coming off a disappointing season last year, where it was wet, but too warm, look for the Pacific Northwest to bounce back.  

5 Named Storms to Date

Here is the current list from the Barcelona Supercomputing Center conducted by Colorado State University.  You can see we are sitting at 3 named storms for the Atlantic Basin. (click to enlarge) https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/forecast/seasonal-predictions

Last year we had hurricanes Franklin, Idalia, Margot, Nigel and Lidia during that timeframe.  Let’s dive in and look at the expected possibilities for the upcoming peak hurricane season.

Projected Hurricane Possibilities +/- 5 days  Hot Spots Florida, Louisiana, Texas

August 31, Baja Mexico–Sept 9, Florida Atlantic Side (or Carolinas)–Sept 12 Florida West Coast–Hurricane Debby (last cycle) Sept 18-20–Sept 24 Gulf of Mexico (Louisiana)–Sept 26 Florida Gulf Coast–Sept 30 Corpus Christi (Brownsville Hurricane Beryl) Oct 4 Puerto Vallarta

Corpus Christi and Florida have verified.  We hit the Trifecta with Hurricane Beryl predicting the date, location and path.  Florida’s Hurricane Debby; we got the date and location correct. 

Hurricane Paths  Click to Animate

Other Notables

Sept 1 or Sept 9 New England or Maine/Nova Scotia

Below are the original set of predictions made March 8 followed by a revised set on June 3rd.