Posted Aug 22, 2022
Hurricane Gilma and disturbance (possibly Hector) churning towards Hawaii
Hurricane Date’s and Location’s Released March 8 and Revised June 3rd
Active Pattern
The active part of the hurricane pattern will calm down after tomorrow, as these last few storms work their way to their conclusion. Hurricane Gilma is predicted by the GFS to strengthen and then begin to loose its strength before hitting Hawaii. The storm in front of Gilma, not named yet, appears to go just south of Hawaii at the moment. We will be monitoring these storms. Typhoon Watch
We have another storm in the Pacific named Shanshan that has max sustained winds of 40 knots with 50 knot gusts. It is currently on a path to hit Osaka Japan. A lot can change over these next few days, but it is strengthening as it moves through the warm waters of the western Pacific.
Our hurricane forecast is similar to Weather 2020s. We listed 12 Named Storms, 6 Hurricanes, 2 Major. That is the lowest on the chart, including Weather 2020 with a range of 14 Named Stormes, 8-10 Hurricanes, 3-5 Major. At FutureHurricanes, we don’t do ranges, we set our ____ on the table and let it rip!
We have two prediction charts. The first chart was made back on March 8th. Those predictions are still valid, we revised the chart on June 2nd and left a few lessor possibilities off the new map. One of the possibilities is a possible landfall for New England August 18th, which would fit with Tropical Storm Ernestos timeframe.
The New England prediction is based on a similar path, so we’ll see what happens. The models have it staying off the US coast for now and seems to be following the path of Franklin.
Below is the path of Hurricane Franklin. Other than New England, we do have a possible hurricane making landfall at Nova Scotia (Sept 1 or Sept 9), as it is one of our hotspots this year, but we don’t have Ernesto hitting that area with this storm.
Presently, the GFS has it real close to making landfall near that area, we will follow the models as they refresh and update as necessary.
As you compare the chart to the above GFS chart at the beginning of the blog, you’ll notice a VERY similar path. Last year Hurricane Idalia also spun up and hit Florida. It does not appear that that will repeat at the moment. There is a tiny bit of convection in a similar location that spawned Idalia, but it looks like the winds are not favorable to spin up at this time. Take a look.
Official Predictions from March 8th, Revised June 3rd
Click to Enlarge
Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains
Crystal Mountain, Mount Hood Meadows, Timberline, 49 Degrees North, Bachelor, Mt Baker,
Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains
Heavenly, Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, Dodge Ridge, Donner Ski Ranch
Utah Wasatch Mountains
Alta, Park City, Deer Valley, Brighton, Snowbird, Brian Head
Colorado Rocky Mountains
Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek, Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland
Aspen Weather, Vail Weather, Lake Tahoe Weather, Breckenridge Weather, Beaver Creek Weather, Copper Mountain Weather, Arapahoe Basin Weather, Winter Park Weather, Telluride Weather, Crested Butte Weather, Eldora Weather, Loveland Weather, Alta Weather, Park City Weather, Deer Valley Weather, Snowbird Weather
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