Posted Aug 18, 2024
Hurricane Ernesto Tropical Storm Gilma Pacific
Possible Hurricane Date’s and Location’s Released March 8 and Revised June 3rd
Hurricane Ernesto is winding down so let’s look at the Pacific where we have the potential of a direct hit on Hawaii. Recently named Tropical Storm Gilma, is strengthening and has a good chance of becoming a hurricane by tomorrow. Gilma will likely miss Hawaii to the north, but the next likely named storm, Hector, is in line for a direct hit.
There are a lot of hurricanes that are right on track to hit Hawaii each year. They don’t because of the cooler waters on the way that starve the energy and the storms die. Hurricane Calvin got close, and there were a couple of storms last year that were close too.
Dora was about 4-5oo miles south of Hawaii, but the location of the high pressure (clockwise motion) to the north and the Hurricane to the south (counterclockwise motion), worked in conjunction to create the conditions that fueled the fire.
Why is the track potentially different than Dora? The track is affected by the teleconnection differences this year compared to last. We were entering an El Nino last year and this year the conditions are neutral. Look at the area of development compared to where the disturbance is located, first last year followed by this year.
These seemingly subtle differences, along with TradeWinds, location of ridging and troughs affect the steering mechanism of the storms, that change the outcome, or path. There is definitely a larger area of warmer water, and the high pressure is much further north in this pattern.
Typhoon Watch
We predicted a Typhoon for Taiwan and there is a Tropical Depression in the spot that we predicted it would develop. TD 10W named “Jongdari”. It is rapidly developing….stay tuned.
Our hurricane forecast is similar to Weather 2020s. We listed 12 Named Storms, 6 Hurricanes, 2 Major. That is the lowest on the chart, including Weather 2020 with a range of 14 Named Stormes, 8-10 Hurricanes, 3-5 Major. At FutureHurricanes, we don’t do ranges, we set our ____ on the table and let it rip!
We have two prediction charts. The first chart was made back on March 8th. Those predictions are still valid, we revised the chart on June 2nd and left a few lessor possibilities off the new map. One of the possibilities is a possible landfall for New England August 18th, which would fit with Tropical Storm Ernestos timeframe.
The New England prediction is based on a similar path, so we’ll see what happens. The models have it staying off the US coast for now and seems to be following the path of Franklin.
Below is the path of Hurricane Franklin. Other than New England, we do have a possible hurricane making landfall at Nova Scotia (Sept 1 or Sept 9), as it is one of our hotspots this year, but we don’t have Ernesto hitting that area with this storm.
Presently, the GFS has it real close to making landfall near that area, we will follow the models as they refresh and update as necessary.
As you compare the chart to the above GFS chart at the beginning of the blog, you’ll notice a VERY similar path. Last year Hurricane Idalia also spun up and hit Florida. It does not appear that that will repeat at the moment. There is a tiny bit of convection in a similar location that spawned Idalia, but it looks like the winds are not favorable to spin up at this time. Take a look.
Official Predictions from March 8th, Revised June 3rd
Click to Enlarge
Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains
Crystal Mountain, Mount Hood Meadows, Timberline, 49 Degrees North, Bachelor, Mt Baker,
Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains
Heavenly, Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, Dodge Ridge, Donner Ski Ranch
Utah Wasatch Mountains
Alta, Park City, Deer Valley, Brighton, Snowbird, Brian Head
Colorado Rocky Mountains
Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek, Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland
Aspen Weather, Vail Weather, Lake Tahoe Weather, Breckenridge Weather, Beaver Creek Weather, Copper Mountain Weather, Arapahoe Basin Weather, Winter Park Weather, Telluride Weather, Crested Butte Weather, Eldora Weather, Loveland Weather, Alta Weather, Park City Weather, Deer Valley Weather, Snowbird Weather
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